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        "verdict": "PASS",
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        "snapshot_at": "2026-10-29 04:02:07",
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        "verdict": "PASS",
        "robots_txt_state": "ALLOWED",
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        "page_fetch_state": "SUCCESSFUL",
        "referring_urls": "[\"https://marin-t-kael.de/presse\"]",
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        "google_canonical": "https://marin-t-kael.de/en/press",
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        "snapshot_at": "2026-10-29 04:02:07",
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        "robots_txt_state": "ALLOWED",
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        "page_fetch_state": "SUCCESSFUL",
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        "snapshot_at": "2026-10-29 04:02:07",
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        "snapshot_at": "2026-10-29 04:02:07",
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        "coverage_state": "Gecrawlt – zurzeit nicht indexiert",
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        "snapshot_at": "2026-10-29 04:02:07",
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        "google_canonical": "https://marin-t-kael.de/faq",
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        "raw_excerpt": "<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html class=\"desktop withSiteHeaderTopFullImage\n\">\n<head prefix=\"og: http://ogp.me/ns# fb: http://ogp.me/ns/fb# good_reads: http://ogp.me/ns/fb/good_reads#\">\n  <title>Marin T. Kael (Author of Das vierte Feld )</title>\n\n<meta content='Marin T. Kael wuchs mit Geschichten auf, die größer waren als jede Stadtmauer. Schon früh entdeckte er die Faszination für Welten, in denen Macht, Schick...' name='description'>\n<meta content='telephone=no' name='format-detection'>\n<link href='https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/70522970.Marin_T_Kael' rel='canonical'>\n  <!-- OPEN GRAPH-->\n  <meta content='2415071772' property='fb:app_id'>\n<meta content='books.author' property='og:type'>\n<meta content='Marin T. Kael' property='og:title'>\n<meta content='Author of Das vierte Feld , The Fourth Field und Das graue Reich' property='og:description'>\n<meta content='https://images.gr-assets.com/authors/1783426345p8/70522970.jpg' property='og:image'>\n<meta content='https://www.goodreads.com/author/"
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        "raw_excerpt": "<!DOCTYPE html><html lang=\"en\"><head><meta charSet=\"utf-8\" data-next-head=\"\"/><meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width\" data-next-head=\"\"/><meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"initial-scale=1.0, width=device-width\"/><script async=\"\" src=\"https://securepubads.g.doubleclick.net/tag/js/gpt.js\"></script><link rel=\"icon\" href=\"/favicon.ico\"/><link href=\"https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/252885989-das-vierte-feld\" rel=\"canonical\"/><link rel=\"alternate\" href=\"https://www.goodreads.com/de/book/show/252885989-das-vierte-feld\" hrefLang=\"de\"/><meta name=\"description\" content=\"Read 4 reviews from the world’s largest community \n    for readers. In Varin sind Worte Wirklichkeit.Jedes Edikt – ein Gesetz, besiegelt von Krone, Zünften und …\"/><meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Das vierte Feld : Roman der Edikte (Zyklus der Schrift …\"/><meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Das vierte Feld : Roman der Edikte (Zyklus der Schrift …\"/><meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"books.book\"/><meta name=\"twitter:car"
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      "handle": "marin-t-kael.de",
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      "raw": "{\"avatar\":\"https://cdn.bsky.app/img/avatar/plain/did:plc:wy5b6tmxcstmszdwtblrbfu6/bafkreigir5wrijwwsr5falvfggbckw5paz7qyzvkpjtgjii2ipi66efv7m\",\"description\":\"Fantasy-Autor (er/ihm). Mein Debüt »Das vierte Feld« ist erschienen, Band 1 der Saga »Prägungen des Reiches«. In Varin sind Worte Wirklichkeit.\\n\\nDaneben ein offenes Forschungslabor: was Sprachmodelle aus einem Roman lesen.\\nmarin-t-kael.de/v\",\"labels\":[],\"pinnedPost\":\"at://did:plc:wy5b6tmxcstmszdwtblrbfu6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxdwnprbpq22\",\"likes_given\":3000,\"reposts_given\":32,\"follows_given\":1102}"
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  "field4_voice_konsistenz": {
    "note": "Erfasst über separate style_lint-Pipeline (CI auf Marin-Repo, MIT-lizenziert)"
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  "data_gaps": [
    {
      "channel": "method_dedupe",
      "gap_start": "2026-05-13",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-21",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), Fortsetzung von Eintrag 7: Die Doppelzeilen-Korrektur vom 03.09. deckte nur die Ankertage 22.08. bis 03.09. ab. Eine vollständige Zählung am 04.09. zeigt dieselbe Verdopplung im gesamten Zeitraum davor: 4690 Gruppen aus (Lauf, Modell, Frage) mit mehr als einer Nicht-Fehler-Zeile (Mai 2272, Juni 1984, Juli 1024, August 480 Gruppen). Ursache wie bei Eintrag 7 der wiederholte Stufen-Aufruf; zusätzlich war das Schreiben der Antworten nicht idempotent, sodass jede Wiederholung einen zweiten vollständigen Satz anlegte. Anders als am 03.09. wird NICHT im Bestand gelöscht: 687 der Gruppen tragen bei gleichem Score unterschiedlichen Antworttext, der Forschungsmaterial ist (Qüllen-Parsing, Einbettungen, Drift-Analyse). Stattdessen dedupliziert ab 04.09. jede Auswertung selbst: je Lauf und (Modell, Frage) genau eine Zeile, eine Fehlerzeile verliert gegen eine echte Antwort, unter gleichrangigen Zeilen gewinnt die zuletzt geschriebene. Die historischen Snapshots sind nicht betroffen, weil sie vor dem Eintreffen der Doppelzeilen geschrieben wurden (belegt am 18.08.: Snapshot 04:04:36 mit 80 Datenpunkten, zweiter Zeilensatz 04:04:52). Betroffen war die live aus dem Bestand gerechnete Kanal-Kennzahl in /api/latest. Offen: 98 Gruppen, deren Wiederholungen unterschiedlich bewertet wurden; sie werden einzeln geklärt, bevor eine Reaggregation der Historie läuft.",
      "reason_en": null
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_dedupe",
      "gap_start": "2026-05-13",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-04",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), Abschluss der Einträge 7 und 9: In 32 Fällen wurde dieselbe Frage innerhalb eines Messlaufs mehrfach beantwortet und unterschiedlich bewertet (Mai 5, Juni 11, Juli 5, August 11), meist durch Wiederholungen aus der Aufbauphase Stunden nach dem planmäßigen Lauf. Bisher zählte die zuletzt geschriebene Antwort. Seit dem 04.09.2026 zählt die Antwort, die dem planmäßigen Messzeitpunkt am nächsten liegt; fehlgeschlagene Anfragen sind keine Messpunkte. Alle Messtage wurden mit dieser Regel neu ausgewertet.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (no gap), closing entries 7 and 9: In 32 cases the same question was answered more than once within a measurement run and scored differently (May 5, June 11, July 5, August 11), mostly through repetitions from the build-up phase hours after the scheduled run. Previously the last written answer counted. Since 4 September 2026 the answer closest to the scheduled measurement time counts; failed requests are not data points. All measurement days were re-evaluated with this rule."
    },
    {
      "channel": "gsc_sitemap_indexed",
      "gap_start": "2026-05-15",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-25",
      "reason": "Totes Feld, kein Messausfall im engeren Sinn: Die Sitemap-Schnittstelle der Google Search Console liefert im Feld contents[].indexed konstant den Wert 0. Belegt an 341 von 341 Zeilen vom 15.05.2026 bis 25.09.2026 ohne jede Varianz, während das Feld submitted im selben Datensatz durchgehend 39 misst und die URL-Inspection zeitgleich 23 von 30 Seiten im Index ausweist. Zwei Kanäle widersprechen sich, also misst das Feld die Wirklichkeit nicht. Die gespeicherte 0 war damit ein nie erhobener Wert in der Gestalt eines Messwerts. Maßnahme am 25.09.2026: Die Erhebung schreibt für dieses Feld nun NULL statt 0, und die 341 Altzeilen wurden von 0 auf NULL gesetzt (Vorher 341 mit Wert 0 und 0 mit NULL, Nachher 0 mit Wert 0 und 341 mit NULL). Der Rohwert der Schnittstelle bleibt unverändert im raw-Feld erhalten. Keine Leserzahl war betroffen, das Feld erreicht die öffentliche Schnittstelle nicht.",
      "reason_en": "Dead field, not a measurement outage in the narrow sense: the Google Search Console sitemaps interface returns a constant 0 in contents[].indexed. Evidenced across 341 of 341 rows from 2026-05-15 to 2026-09-25 with no variance, while the submitted field in the same record consistently measures 39 and URL inspection concurrently reports 23 of 30 pages indexed. Two channels contradict each other, so the field does not measure reality. The stored 0 was therefore a never-collected value wearing the shape of a measurement. Action on 2026-09-25: collection now writes NULL instead of 0 for this field, and the 341 legacy rows were set from 0 to NULL (before 341 with value 0 and 0 with NULL, after 0 with value 0 and 341 with NULL). The raw interface value remains preserved in the raw field. No reader-facing figure was affected, the field does not reach the public interface."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-05-21",
      "gap_end": "2026-05-24",
      "reason": "Nachtrag 05.10.2026 aus der Abdeckungsbilanz des Validierungsberichts Q3/2026: In der Aufbauphase der Claude-Web-Messung fehlt für den 21., 22. und 24.05.2026 ein vollständiger Messlauf (am 23.05. liegen Läufe vor, am 24.05. nur ein leerer und ein falsch beschrifteter Lauf ohne Claude-Werte). Die Ursache ist nachträglich nicht mehr festzustellen. Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert; die Kopfzahl dieser Tage beruht auf OpenAI und Gemini. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots (run_ts 20.05. bis 24.05.) gegen das tägliche Soll der Phase bis 18.08.; results.json stage3.coverage_balance.",
      "reason_en": "Addendum 2026-10-05 from the coverage balance of the Q3/2026 validation report: during the set-up phase of the Claude web measurement there is no complete run for 21, 22 and 24 May 2026 (runs exist on 23 May; on 24 May only an empty run and a mislabelled run without Claude values). The cause can no longer be established. Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero; the headline figure for these days rests on OpenAI and Gemini. Source: claude_web_snapshots (run_ts 20 to 24 May) against the daily target of the phase up to 18 August; results.json stage3.coverage_balance."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-06-01",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-04",
      "reason": "METHODIK-HINWEIS (keine Lücke): In der claude.ai-Messumgebung war ein Konnektor zur eigenen Weltdatenbank der Saga aktiviert. In 47 Antworten auf Frage GR5 (01.06.-19.08.) sowie einzelnen Antworten auf GR2/GR4 bis 04.09. nannte das Modell diesen Konnektor statt einer Websuche-Quelle. Alle diese Antworten wurden als genre_baseline_no_marin (0) gewertet; die Kennzahlen sind unberührt. Die Nennungen wurden im Datensatz und im Archiv redigiert ([Konnektor der Messumgebung]); der Konnektor ist seit 04.09. in der Messumgebung deaktiviert.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD NOTE (not a gap): the claude.ai measurement environment had a connector to the saga's own world database enabled. In 47 answers to question GR5 (1 Jun-19 Aug) and a few answers to GR2/GR4 until 4 Sep the model referred to this connector instead of a web-search source. All of these answers were scored genre_baseline_no_marin (0); the headline figures are unaffected. The mentions were redacted in the dataset and archive ([connector of the measurement environment]); the connector has been disabled in the measurement environment since 4 Sep."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-06-22",
      "gap_end": "2026-07-01",
      "reason": "Nachtrag 05.10.2026 aus der Abdeckungsbilanz des Validierungsberichts Q3/2026: Vom 22.06. bis 01.07.2026 (zehn Tage) gibt es keinen einzigen Claude-Web-Messlauf, weder mit noch ohne Messwert. Der letzte Lauf davor ist vom 21.06., der nächste vom 02.07. Die Ursache ist nachträglich nicht festzustellen. Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert; die Kopfzahl dieser Tage beruht auf OpenAI und Gemini. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots (keine Zeile mit run_ts im Fenster) gegen das tägliche Soll; results.json stage3.coverage_balance.",
      "reason_en": "Addendum 2026-10-05 from the coverage balance of the Q3/2026 validation report: from 22 June to 1 July 2026 (ten days) there is not a single Claude web run, with or without measurements. The last run before is from 21 June, the next from 2 July. The cause can no longer be established. Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero; the headline figure for these days rests on OpenAI and Gemini. Source: claude_web_snapshots (no row with run_ts in the window) against the daily target; results.json stage3.coverage_balance."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-07-05",
      "gap_end": "2026-07-21",
      "reason": "Messkanal-Ausfall: die claude.ai-Messung wurde nach einer Umstellung der Ablaufsteuerung nicht mehr ausgelöst und die claude.ai-Browsersitzung war offline. Claude-Tiers (Haiku/Sonnet/Opus) fehlen für diese 17 Tage; Primär-/Kombiniert-Wert basiert in dem Fenster auf 2 Anbietern (OpenAI+Gemini). Nicht rückwirkend messbar (Live-Messung). Behoben 2026-07-22: täglicher automatischer Messlauf.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement-channel outage: the claude.ai measurement stopped being triggered after a scheduling change, and the claude.ai browser session was offline. Claude tiers (Haiku/Sonnet/Opus) are missing for these 17 days; the primary/combined value is based on 2 providers (OpenAI+Gemini) in that window. Not retroactively measurable (live measurement). Fixed 2026-07-22: daily automated measurement run."
    },
    {
      "channel": "openai_search",
      "gap_start": "2026-07-24",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-06",
      "reason": "Messkanal-Ausfall LAUFEND (Ursache 06.08. per Direkt-Test verifiziert): OpenAI-API-Konto OHNE CREDITS (credit_balance_exhausted) seit ~24.07. — kein Timeout, kein Gateway-Defekt. AbortError-Einträge waren Sekundärartefakt der 429-Backoff-Kaskade (50s Sleeps rissen das Chunk-Race). Fix deployed 06.08. (Worker 88fa700b): quota-Fehler = fail-fast Marker openai_quota_exhausted + degraded_channels-Warnung im Stage-Result. RESTORE-Bedingung: Betreiber lädt OpenAI-Credits auf (manuelle Freigabe), dann gap_end setzen. || RESTORED 2026-08-06 ~17:2x CEST: Credits wurden aufgeladen; Direkt-Test 17s OK; manueller Stage-Nachlauf (run 304eb03e) liefert openai_search wieder live-Datapoints. Gap final: 24.07.-06.08.",
      "reason_en": null
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-07-25",
      "gap_end": "2026-07-26",
      "reason": "Nachtrag 05.10.2026 aus der Abdeckungsbilanz des Validierungsberichts Q3/2026: Am 25.07.2026 lief keine Claude-Web-Messung. Am 26.07. lief sie, aber alle 48 Frage/Modell-Paare endeten als Fehlerzeile ohne Antworttext (claude_web_snapshots id 160, alle drei Stufen n=0, n_error=16). Das Aggregat schließt den Tag aus. Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots + claude_web_results snapshot_id 160; results.json stage3.coverage_balance.",
      "reason_en": "Addendum 2026-10-05 from the coverage balance of the Q3/2026 validation report: no Claude web run took place on 25 July 2026. On 26 July a run took place, but all 48 question/model pairs ended as error rows without answer text (claude_web_snapshots id 160, all three tiers n=0, n_error=16). The aggregate excludes the day. Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero. Source: claude_web_snapshots + claude_web_results snapshot_id 160; results.json stage3.coverage_balance."
    },
    {
      "channel": "bing_index",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-01",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-05",
      "reason": "Die Bing-Webmaster-Schnittstelle beantwortet die Index-Abfrage seit dem 01.08.2026 an keinem Tag mehr mit einem Status (742 von 742 Zeilen im August ohne Wert, 710 davon HTTP 400; erste Fehler im Juli). Der Kanal lieferte also keine Nullwerte, sondern gar keine Messung. Die Anzeige auf der Ergebnisseite stand bis zum 08.09.2026 auf 0 von 25 und wurde auf nicht messbar umgestellt. NACHTRAG 09.09.2026: Erste Ursache geklärt. Der Zugangsschlüssel war gültig, aber die Eigentümer-Bestätigung der Adresse war verloren gegangen; jede Einzelabfrage endete deshalb in NotAuthorized. Die Bestätigungsdatei wird seit dem 09.09. wieder ausgeliefert und die Bestätigung ist wiederhergestellt. Der Kanal maß trotzdem weiter nicht: die Abfragen der Erhebungsumgebung werden IP-seitig gedrosselt (ErrorCode 17 ThrottleIP, 25 von 26 Zeilen je Tag vom 09.09. bis 14.09.), während dieselbe Abfrage mit demselben Schlüssel aus einem anderen Netz zur selben Minute HTTP 200 liefert. NACHTRAG 15.09.2026: Der Kanal misst wieder. Die Abfrage wird seitdem außerhalb der Erhebungsumgebung gefahren (gleiche Adressliste, gleiche Ableitungsregeln, gleiche Zieltabelle; die Zeilen tragen in raw das Merkmal _probe=local). Dabei ist ein zweiter, anderer Riegel sichtbar geworden: nach einer begrenzten Zahl von Abfragen je Site und Tag antwortet die Schnittstelle mit ErrorCode 5 ThrottleHost. Am 15.09. wurden deshalb 10 der 25 Adressen beantwortet (7 davon im Index), die übrigen 15 blieben ungemessen; ungemessen ist nicht 'nicht indexiert', die Ergebnisseite weist die Teilabdeckung seit dem 15.09. im Klartext aus. Ob das Tageskontingent für alle 25 Adressen reicht, wenn keine Probeabfragen davon abgehen, wird am nächsten Messtag geprüft. NACHTRAG 06.10.2026: Das Lückenende 15.09. war falsch. Der Abruf aus dem eigenen Netz lief nur am 15.09.; vom 16.09. bis 05.10. trug kein Lauf einen Bing-Wert (D1 bing_ai_index_snapshots, je Tag 19 bis 26 Zeilen, 0 mit Wert). Das Lückenende ist deshalb auf den 05.10. gesetzt. Seit dem 06.10. läuft der Abruf täglich nach dem Messlauf. Am 06.10. lieferten 15 von 20 Adressen einen Wert (11 im Index, 4 gecrawlt, aber nicht im Index), eine Adresse meldete einen Fehler der Schnittstelle, danach griff das Tageskontingent (ThrottleHost) und 3 Adressen blieben ungemessen. Volle Abdeckung aller Adressen an einem Tag ist damit nicht erreichbar; ungemessen bleibt ungemessen, nicht 'nicht indexiert'.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement-channel outage: since 1 August 2026 the Bing Webmaster interface returned no status on any day (742 of 742 rows in August without a value, 710 of them HTTP 400; first errors in July). The channel produced no zeros, it produced no measurement at all. Until 8 September the results page showed 0 of 25; it was then switched to 'not measurable'. ADDENDUM 9 Sep 2026: first cause identified. The access key was valid, but ownership verification for the address had been lost, so every single-URL query ended in NotAuthorized. The verification file has been served again since 9 September and verification is restored. The channel still did not measure: queries from the collection environment are throttled by IP (ErrorCode 17 ThrottleIP, 25 of 26 rows per day from 9 to 14 September), while the same query with the same key from a different network returns HTTP 200 in the same minute. ADDENDUM 15 Sep 2026: the channel measures again. The query is now run outside the collection environment (same address list, same derivation rules, same target table; rows carry _probe=local in raw). This revealed a second, different limit: after a limited number of queries per site and day the interface answers with ErrorCode 5 ThrottleHost. On 15 September 10 of 25 addresses were answered (7 of them in the index); the remaining 15 were not measured. Not measured is not 'not indexed' — since 15 September the results page states the partial coverage explicitly. Whether the daily quota covers all 25 addresses when no probe queries consume it will be checked on the next measurement day. ADDENDUM 6 October 2026: the gap end of 15 September was wrong. The query from our own network ran only on 15 September; from 16 September to 5 October no run carried a Bing value (D1 bing_ai_index_snapshots, 19 to 26 rows per day, 0 with a value). The gap end is therefore set to 5 October. Since 6 October the query runs daily after the measurement run. On 6 October 15 of 20 addresses returned a value (11 indexed, 4 crawled but not indexed), one address returned an interface error, then the daily quota (ThrottleHost) applied and 3 addresses remained unmeasured. Full coverage of all addresses on one day is therefore not achievable; unmeasured stays unmeasured, not 'not indexed'."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-01",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-02",
      "reason": "Nachtrag 05.10.2026 aus der Abdeckungsbilanz des Validierungsberichts Q3/2026: Am 01.08. und 02.08.2026 lief die Claude-Web-Messung, aber alle 48 Frage/Modell-Paare je Tag endeten als Fehlerzeile ohne Antworttext (claude_web_snapshots id 166 und 167, je drei Stufen n=0, n_error=16). Das Aggregat schließt beide Tage aus. Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots + claude_web_results snapshot_id 166/167; results.json stage3.coverage_balance.",
      "reason_en": "Addendum 2026-10-05 from the coverage balance of the Q3/2026 validation report: on 1 and 2 August 2026 the Claude web run took place, but all 48 question/model pairs per day ended as error rows without answer text (claude_web_snapshots id 166 and 167, three tiers each n=0, n_error=16). The aggregate excludes both days. Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero. Source: claude_web_snapshots + claude_web_results snapshot_id 166/167; results.json stage3.coverage_balance."
    },
    {
      "channel": "openai_search",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-18",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-19",
      "reason": "Messkanal-Ausfall, ZWEITER Vorfall (Erster: 24.07.-06.08.): OpenAI-API-Konto erneut OHNE CREDITS (insufficient_quota, per Direkt-Test 19.08. verifiziert), 12 Tage nach der Aufladung vom 06.08. Verbrauch ca. 29 Search-Calls/Tag (gpt-4o-mini-search-preview). Betroffen: 18.08. (32 Fehlerzeilen, Tag nicht rückwirkend messbar, Primär-Wert nur Gemini) und 19.08. (nach Aufladung am 19.08. ~09:40 UTC Stage nachgefahren = echter Messwert, kein Gap). ZUSAETZLICH am 19.08. behoben: die Live-Stage-Aggregation zählte Fehlerzeilen als Datenpunkte (0% zitiert) und drückte den kombinierten Wert (11,1% statt ~16,7%); seit Worker 3fd56929 sind Fehlerzeilen kein Messpunkt mehr und Provider ohne valide Antwort erscheinen als unavailable (Lücke ist kein Nullwert). Dauerhafte Vorbeugung: Auto-Recharge im OpenAI-Billing (Betreiber).",
      "reason_en": "Measurement-channel outage, SECOND incident (first: 24 Jul-06 Aug): the OpenAI API account ran out of credits again (insufficient_quota, verified by direct test on 19 Aug), 12 days after the top-up of 06 Aug; consumption ~29 search calls/day (gpt-4o-mini-search-preview). Affected: 18 Aug (32 error rows, not retroactively measurable, primary value Gemini-only) and 19 Aug (after the top-up on 19 Aug ~09:40 UTC the stage was re-run = real measurement, no gap). Also fixed on 19 Aug: the live stage aggregation had counted error rows as datapoints (0% cited), depressing the combined value (11.1% instead of ~16.7%); since worker 3fd56929 error rows are no longer datapoints and providers without a valid answer appear as unavailable (a gap is not a zero). Durable prevention: auto-recharge in OpenAI billing (operator)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_cadence",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-19",
      "reason": "METHODIK-AENDERUNG (keine Lücke): KI-Zitations-Messung (OpenAI/Gemini/Claude-Batch) läuft ab 19.08. alle 3 Tage statt täglich (Messtage 19., 22., 25.08. ...). Begründung aus 50 Tagen Daten: Tag-zu-Tag-Autokorrelation 0,02 (Tageswerte sind Rauschen um ein stabiles Niveau), 3-Tage-Mittel halbiert die Streuung, Kosten dritteln sich. Zeitreihe bleibt vergleichbar (gleiche 16 Fragen, gleiche Anbieter, gleiches Scoring); an Zwischentagen zeigt das Dashboard den jüngsten Messtag (Messdatum explizit). Gleichzeitig Kennzahl-Split in drei Kanäle (Direkt / Saga-Wissen / Empfehlung), Kombi-Wert bleibt als Kontinuität.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CHANGE (not a gap): the AI-citation measurement (OpenAI/Gemini/Claude batch) runs every 3 days instead of daily from 19 Aug (measurement days 19, 22, 25 Aug ...). Rationale from 50 days of data: day-to-day autocorrelation 0.02 (daily values are noise around a stable level), 3-day means halve the spread, cost drops to a third. The series stays comparable (same 16 questions, providers, scoring); on in-between days the dashboard shows the latest measurement day (date shown explicitly). At the same time the headline was split into three channels (Direct / Saga knowledge / Recommendation); the combined value remains for continuity."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_kopfzahl_basis",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: Die Kopfzahl ist der einfache Durchschnitt der Anbieter OpenAI, Gemini und Claude (Web). Fallen an einem Ankertag zwei Anbieter aus, ist der verbleibende Einzelwert kein Kombinationswert mehr. Ab 07.10. gibt es an solchen Tagen keine Kopfzahl; der Einzelwert bleibt je Anbieter sichtbar. Betroffen ist ein Ankertag: 27.09.2026 (nur Gemini, 22,9 %), der bisher als Kopfzahl im Verlauf stand. Tage mit zwei von drei Anbietern bleiben im Verlauf und sind als hohle Punkte gekennzeichnet. Die Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens (Q7) stützt sich ohnehin auf OpenAI und Gemini und ist nicht betroffen.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: The headline figure is the simple average of the providers OpenAI, Gemini and Claude (web). If two providers fail on an anchor day, the remaining single value is no longer a combined figure. From 7 October such days carry no headline figure; the single value stays visible per provider. One anchor day is affected: 27 September 2026 (Gemini only, 22.9 %), which had appeared as a headline point in the trend. Days with two of three providers remain in the trend and are drawn as hollow points. The book-release analysis (Q7) relies on OpenAI and Gemini anyway and is not affected."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_scorer_nichtfund",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: Antworten, die ausdrücklich melden, dass die Suche nach Marin T. Kael nichts ergab, zählen als ehrliches Nichtwissen (0 Punkte) und nicht als erfundene Angabe (−3). Die Regel vom 07.10. erkannte das nur an einigen Formulierungen; ab jetzt auch an „ergeben“, „Suche“, „identifizieren“ und „feststellbar“ sowie an der Umleitung durch die Suche („liefert hauptsächlich Ergebnisse zu Pauline Kael“). Eine bloße Verwechslung ohne Suchaussage bleibt −3. Gleiche Regel für OpenAI, Gemini und Claude. Nachbewertet ab 19.08. nur dort, wo der gespeicherte Auszug die Aussage selbst belegt: OpenAI/Gemini 9 Antworten (8 von −3 auf 0, eine von −3 auf +1), alle bei Gemini zu Frage D1; Claude (Web) 4 Antworten (19.09. und 21.09. Opus D2, 07.10. Sonnet D2 und Haiku D1). Fünf Claude-Antworten vom 25.08. bis 06.09. bleiben unverändert, weil der Auszug den damaligen Auslöser nicht enthält. Messtage ab 19.08. neu zusammengefasst. Für die Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens gilt die Regel in Grundlinie und Wirkungsfenster gleichermaßen.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: Answers that state explicitly that the search for Marin T. Kael returned nothing count as honest non-knowledge (0 points), not as invented details (−3). The rule of 7 October recognised this only for some phrasings; from now on also for “ergeben”, “search”, “identify” and “ascertainable”, and for redirection by the search (“returns mainly results about Pauline Kael”). A mere confusion without any statement about the search remains −3. Same rule for OpenAI, Gemini and Claude. Rescored from 19 August only where the stored excerpt itself proves the statement: OpenAI/Gemini 9 answers (8 from −3 to 0, one from −3 to +1), all Gemini on question D1; Claude (web) 4 answers (19 and 21 Sep Opus D2, 7 Oct Sonnet D2 and Haiku D1). Five Claude answers from 25 Aug to 6 Sep stay unchanged because the excerpt does not contain the original trigger. Measurement days from 19 August re-aggregated. For the book-release analysis the rule applies equally to baseline and effect window."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_scorer_kollision_pauline",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: Verweist eine Antwort auf die Filmkritikerin Pauline Kael, ist das eine Namens-Kollision mit einer realen Person und keine erfundene Angabe über Marin T. Kael. Sie wird ab jetzt wie die Titel-Kollision mit dem Sachbuch von Mokka Müller behandelt: 0 Punkte (Status Kollision) statt −3. Nennt die Antwort daneben echte Angaben über Marin und sein Buch, werden diese wie üblich bewertet. Eine Kollision gilt auch dann, wenn die Antwort außer dem wiederholten Namen keine Angabe über Marin enthält. Gleiche Regel für OpenAI, Gemini und Claude. Nachbewertet ab 19.08. nur dort, wo der gespeicherte Text Pauline Kael selbst enthält: Gemini 06.09. Frage D1 (−3 auf +2, die Antwort beschreibt Marin zutreffend und nennt die Verwechslungsmöglichkeit) und Claude Haiku 19.09. Frage D1 (−3 auf 0). Fünf Claude-Opus-Antworten vom 25.08. bis 06.09. bleiben bei −3, weil ihr gespeicherter Auszug den damaligen Auslöser nicht enthält. Messtage ab 19.08. neu zusammengefasst. Für die Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens gilt die Regel in Grundlinie und Wirkungsfenster gleichermaßen.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: An answer referring to the film critic Pauline Kael is a name collision with a real person, not invented information about Marin T. Kael. From now on it is treated like the title collision with the non-fiction book by Mokka Müller: 0 points (status collision) instead of −3. If the answer also gives genuine information about Marin and his book, that is scored as usual. A collision also applies when the answer contains no information about Marin beyond repeating the name. Same rule for OpenAI, Gemini and Claude. Rescored from 19 August only where the stored text itself contains Pauline Kael: Gemini 6 Sep question D1 (−3 to +2; the answer describes Marin correctly and names the possible confusion) and Claude Haiku 19 Sep question D1 (−3 to 0). Five Claude Opus answers from 25 Aug to 6 Sep stay at −3 because their stored excerpt does not contain the original trigger. Measurement days from 19 August re-aggregated. For the book-release analysis the rule applies equally to baseline and effect window."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_scorer_buchtitel",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-15",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 15.10.2026 im laufenden Wirkungsfenster: Das Bewertungsschema verlangte bisher den Autorennamen Marin T. Kael als Pflichtanker. Antworten, die das Buch korrekt nennen, aber ohne Autorennamen, galten dadurch als nicht gefunden. Ab jetzt zählt auch der Buch- oder Reihentitel („Das vierte Feld“, „Prägungen des Reiches“) als Anker, wenn er nicht schon in der Frage steht; das gilt für alle Fragen außer den Direkt-Fragen, denn nur D2 und D3 enthalten den Titel. Das gleichnamige Sachbuch von Mokka Müller bleibt eine Titel-Kollision ohne Punkte. Gleiche Regel für OpenAI, Gemini und Claude. Nachbewertet ab 19.08. nach derselben Regel: genau zwei Antworten, beide am 12.10. zur Frage L1 (Gemini 0 auf 2, Claude Opus 5.5 0 auf 2); in der Grundlinie des Buch-Erscheinens ist keine Antwort betroffen, die Regel wirkt auf Grundlinie und Wirkungsfenster gleich. Messtag 12.10. neu zusammengefasst.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap), fixed on 15 October 2026 during the effect window: The scoring scheme previously required the author name Marin T. Kael as a mandatory anchor. Answers naming the book correctly but without the author name therefore counted as not found. From now on the book or series title (“Das vierte Feld”, “Prägungen des Reiches”) also counts as an anchor when it is not already part of the question; this applies to all questions except the Direct questions, since only D2 and D3 contain the title. The non-fiction book of the same title by Mokka Müller remains a title collision without points. Same rule for OpenAI, Gemini and Claude. Rescored from 19 August under the same rule: exactly two answers, both on 12 October for question L1 (Gemini 0 to 2, Claude Opus 5.5 0 to 2); no answer in the baseline of the book release is affected, so the rule applies equally to baseline and effect window. Measurement day 12 October re-aggregated."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_cadence_enforced",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-20",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-04",
      "reason": "METHODIK-HINWEIS (keine Lücke): Zwischen dem 20.08. und dem 04.10.2026 haben OpenAI und Gemini an 30 Tagen außerhalb der seit 19.08. geltenden Drei-Tage-Kadenz gemessen. Ursache war ein Abschlussschritt des Messablaufs, der statt einer reinen Neuberechnung die vollständige Messung erneut auslöste; eine Korrektur vom 03.09. ging bei einer späteren Aktualisierung verloren. Entscheid vom 04.10.2026: Die vorregistrierte Kadenz gilt, ab dem 05.10. wird nur an Ankertagen gemessen (Messablauf-Version 229bf6a8). Die 30 Zusatztage bleiben als gültige Messungen im Datensatz und sind als außerplanmäßig gekennzeichnet; Auswertungen auf dem Ankertag-Raster lassen sie aus.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD NOTE (not a gap): between 20 August and 4 October 2026 OpenAI and Gemini measured on 30 days outside the three-day cadence in force since 19 August. The cause was a closing step of the measurement run that triggered the full measurement again instead of only recomputing; a fix from 3 September was lost in a later update. Decision of 4 October 2026: the pre-registered cadence applies; from 5 October measurements run on anchor days only (run version 229bf6a8). The 30 extra days remain in the dataset as valid measurements and are flagged as off-schedule; analyses on the anchor-day grid leave them out."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_dedupe",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-22",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-03",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke): An den Ankertagen 22.08., 25.08., 28.08., 31.08. und 03.09. standen Gemini und OpenAI-Search mit 32 Zeilen für 16 Fragen in ai_citation_results (identische Antwort und Score, ~50 s auseinander). Ursache im Worker: der Workflow-Step finalize-aggregate rief die komplette Live-Stage ai_citation erneut auf statt nur den Snapshot zu reaggregieren; an Nicht-Ankertagen erzeugte derselbe Step 16 ungeplante Zeilen trotz 3-Tage-Kadenz. Folge: Doppelgewicht der Web-Kanäle in der Aggregation. Korrektur 03.09.: Doppelzeilen entfernt (älteste je Frage bleibt), Snapshots reaggregiert. Kombinierter Wert vorher/nachher: 22.08. 11,5/6,9 · 25.08. 8,0/5,0 · 28.08. 12,1/8,5 · 31.08. 12,6/9,0 · 03.09. 9,9/8,8 Prozent. Der Bericht 03 vom 19.08. ist nicht betroffen (Daten bis 19.08.). Worker-Fix: finalize-aggregate ruft reaggregateSnapshot.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (no gap): on the anchor days 22, 25, 28, 31 Aug and 3 Sep, Gemini and OpenAI Search had 32 rows for 16 questions in ai_citation_results (identical answer and score, ~50 s apart). Root cause in the Worker: the workflow step finalize-aggregate re-ran the full live stage ai_citation instead of only reaggregating the snapshot; on non-anchor days the same step produced 16 unplanned rows despite the 3-day cadence. Effect: double weight of the web channels in the aggregation. Correction 3 Sep: duplicate rows removed (oldest per question kept), snapshots reaggregated. Combined value before/after: 22 Aug 11.5/6.9, 25 Aug 8.0/5.0, 28 Aug 12.1/8.5, 31 Aug 12.6/9.0, 3 Sep 9.9/8.8 percent. Report 03 of 19 Aug is unaffected (data through 19 Aug). Worker fix: finalize-aggregate calls reaggregateSnapshot."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-23",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-23",
      "reason": "Messausfall: Der claude.ai-Messlauf vom 23.08.2026 hat alle 48 Zeilen (3 Modellstufen x 16 Fragen) mit Fehlerstatus geschrieben, also keine einzige verwertbare Antwort. Der Lauf steht deshalb mit n=0 und ohne Prozentwert im Aggregat und geht weder in die Kopfzahl noch in den Verlauf ein; eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Der 23.08. war kein Ankertag, die 3-Tage-Kadenz (19., 22., 25.08.) bleibt unberührt. Folge für Auswertungen auf Frage-Ebene: für Claude-Web stehen seit dem 19.08. zehn statt elf Wiederholungen je Frage zur Verfügung. Nachträglich messen ist nicht möglich, weil eine Messung immer den Stand ihres Tages festhält. Befund vom 07.09.2026.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement failure: the claude.ai run of 2026-08-23 wrote all 48 rows (3 model tiers x 16 questions) with error status, so not a single usable answer. The run therefore appears in the aggregate with n=0 and no percentage and enters neither the headline figure nor the trend; a gap is not a zero. 23 Aug was not an anchor day, so the three-day cadence (19, 22, 25 Aug) is unaffected. Consequence for question-level analyses: Claude-Web offers ten instead of eleven repeats per question since 19 Aug. Retroactive measurement is impossible because a measurement always records the state of its own day. Detected 2026-09-07."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_third_party_listing",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-27",
      "gap_end": "2026-08-27",
      "reason": "Dokumentierter Eingriff, KEIN Messausfall: Eintrag des Programms in die kuratierte Fremdliste DavidHuji/Awesome-GEO eingereicht (PR #17, Paper-DOI + CC-BY-Datensatz). Erste nicht selbst publizierte Nennung, falls gemergt. Anlass: Fachbefund vom 21.08. (r/GEO_optimization), wonach der Empfehlungskanal an Drittqüllen-Evidenz hängt und nicht an Entitäts-Erkennung. Zweiter, separat datierter Eingriff folgt am 22.09. (Buch-Erscheinen).",
      "reason_en": "Documented intervention, NOT a measurement gap: submitted the programme to the third-party curated list DavidHuji/Awesome-GEO (PR #17, paper DOI + CC-BY dataset). First non-self-published mention if merged. Prompted by the 21 Aug expert finding on r/GEO_optimization that the recommendation channel is gated by third-party evidence rather than entity recognition. A second, separately dated intervention follows on 22 Sep (book release)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-08-31",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-03",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Anbieters Claude (Web) an einem Ankertag: Am 31.08.2026 lief die claude.ai-Messung nicht, weil die Messumgebung vom 29.08. bis 01.09.2026 vier Tage still ausfiel. Die Kopfzahl combined_primary des 31.08. beruht deshalb auf zwei statt drei Anbietern (OpenAI 22,9 %, Gemini 20,8 %, Ergebnis 21,9 %). Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Der Ankertag 03.09.2026 hat aus demselben Grund keine eigene Claude-Messung; sein Punkt trägt die Claude-Messung vom 02.09. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots gegen das Ankerraster ab 19.08.2026.",
      "reason_en": "Missing measurement for provider Claude (web) on an anchor day: on 2026-08-31 the claude.ai run did not execute because the measurement environment was down for four days, 2026-08-29 to 2026-09-01. The headline figure combined_primary for 2026-08-31 therefore rests on two providers instead of three (OpenAI 22.9%, Gemini 20.8%, result 21.9%). It cannot be measured retroactively; a gap is not a zero. The anchor day 2026-09-03 has no Claude measurement of its own for the same reason; its point carries the Claude measurement of 2026-09-02. Source: claude_web_snapshots against the anchor grid from 2026-08-19."
    },
    {
      "channel": "openai_search",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-03",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-03",
      "reason": "Messkanal-Ausfall LAUFEND, DRITTER Vorfall (1.: 24.07.-06.08., 2.: 18.-19.08.): OpenAI-API-Konto erneut OHNE CREDITS (openai_quota_exhausted in allen 32 openai_search-Zeilen des Runs 30f44ad7 am 03.09. 04:03 UTC; 31.08.-02.09. fehlerfrei), 15 Tage nach der Aufladung vom 19.08. Verbrauch ca. 29 Search-Calls/Tag (gpt-4o-mini-search-preview). Primär-Wert bis zur Aufladung nur Gemini plus Claude-Batch; Lücke ist kein Nullwert (unavailable_llms_v271=[openai_search]). gap_end vorläufig = Meldetag, wird nach der Aufladung nachgezogen. NACHTRAG: Aufladung 03.09. mittags (Betreiber), Stage um 12:12 UTC nachgefahren = echter Messwert für den 03.09., kein Gap mehr; Eintrag bleibt als Beleg des Vorfalls.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement channel outage ONGOING, THIRD incident (1st: 24 Jul-6 Aug, 2nd: 18-19 Aug): OpenAI API account out of credits again (openai_quota_exhausted in all 32 openai_search rows of run 30f44ad7 on 3 Sep 04:03 UTC; 31 Aug-2 Sep error-free), 15 days after the top-up of 19 Aug. Usage about 29 search calls per day (gpt-4o-mini-search-preview). Primary value until top-up: Gemini plus Claude batch only; a gap is not a zero (unavailable_llms_v271=[openai_search]). gap_end provisional = reporting day, to be updated after the top-up. ADDENDUM: top-up 3 Sep noon (operator), stage re-run at 12:12 UTC = real value for 3 Sep, no gap anymore; row kept as incident record."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_metric",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-04",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-04",
      "reason": "METHODIK-HINWEIS (keine Lücke): Seit dem 04.09.2026 gibt es eine einzige Kopfzahl. Sie ist der einfache Mittelwert der drei Anbieter OpenAI, Gemini und Claude (jeweils Anteil der höchstmöglichen Bewertung über alle 16 Fragen, Claude als Mittel seiner drei Modellstufen). Die drei Fragearten und der Verlauf werden aus derselben Basis gebildet. Früher standen daneben Werte mit anderer Rechenbasis (alle Modelle einschließlich Kontrollmodelle; OpenAI und Gemini gepoolt); diese erscheinen nur noch als Prüfwerte in der Methodik-Karte.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD NOTE (no gap): Since 4 September 2026 there is a single headline figure: the simple mean of the three providers OpenAI, Gemini and Claude (each as the share of the highest possible rating across all 16 questions, Claude as the mean of its three model tiers). The three question types and the trend are computed from the same basis. Previously, values with a different basis (all models including control models; OpenAI and Gemini pooled) stood next to it; these now appear only as audit values in the methodology card."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-12",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-12",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Anbieters Claude (Web) am Ankertag 12.09.2026: Der Tageslauf feuerte alle 48 Frage/Modell-Paare, erhielt aber auf jedes einzelne eine Drosselungs-Antwort des Anbieters (Fehlerkennung comp-429). Keine der 48 Zeilen enthält eine Antwort, in keiner wurde eine Websuche ausgelöst, die Antwortzeiten lagen bei 1 bis 3 Sekunden. Das Aggregat schließt den Tag korrekt aus (n=0, percent=null je Stufe); die Kopfzahl combined_primary des 12.09. beruht deshalb auf zwei statt drei Anbietern. Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Nebenbefund: Lauf-Log und Push meldeten den Lauf als erfolgreich (48 Zeilen gescored, Tagesflag gesetzt), obwohl keine Zeile einen Messwert trug. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots id 196 (run_ts 2026-09-12T06:13:36, total_rows 48, alle drei Stufen n=0 n_error=16) und claude_web_results snapshot_id 196 (48 von 48 status=error).",
      "reason_en": "Missing measurement for provider Claude (web) on the anchor day 2026-09-12: the daily run issued all 48 question/model pairs but received a throttling response from the provider for every single one (error code comp-429). None of the 48 rows carries an answer, no web search was triggered in any of them, and response times were 1 to 3 seconds. The aggregate correctly excludes the day (n=0, percent=null per tier); the headline figure combined_primary for 2026-09-12 therefore rests on two providers instead of three. It cannot be measured retroactively; a gap is not a zero. Side finding: the run log and the push reported the run as successful (48 rows scored, daily flag set) although no row carried a measurement. Source: claude_web_snapshots id 196 (run_ts 2026-09-12T06:13:36, total_rows 48, all three tiers n=0 n_error=16) and claude_web_results snapshot_id 196 (48 of 48 status=error)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "ai_citation_batch_anthropic",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-15",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-15",
      "reason": "Teilausfall des Prüfkanals Claude-API-Stapel am Ankertag 15.09.2026, Vorläufer des Ausfalls ab 18.09. (Eintrag id 22): Für das Modell claude endeten alle 16 Fragen als Fehlerzeile mit dem Anbieter-Hinweis, das Guthaben reiche nicht aus; claude_opus und claude_sonnet lieferten je 16 Antworten. Die Kopfzahl combined_primary ist nicht betroffen, der Kanal zählt nur zu den Prüfwerten. Der Kanal ist seit 04.10.2026 eingestellt (Eintrag id 25). Quelle: ai_citation_results asked_at 15.09.2026 04:30:57 (llm=claude, 16 von 16 status=error).",
      "reason_en": "Partial outage of the Claude API batch audit channel on anchor day 2026-09-15, precursor of the outage from 18 September (entry id 22): for the model claude all 16 questions ended as error rows with the provider notice that the credit balance was insufficient; claude_opus and claude_sonnet returned 16 answers each. The headline figure combined_primary is not affected; the channel only feeds audit values. The channel has been discontinued since 2026-10-04 (entry id 25). Source: ai_citation_results asked_at 2026-09-15 04:30:57 (llm=claude, 16 of 16 status=error)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_scorer_termin",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-15",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: (1) Die Liste der Kernfakten im Bewertungsschema enthielt noch den alten Erscheinungstermin 22.09.2026. Seit der Verschiebung am 15.09. nennen die Antworten den 08.10.2026 und bekamen dafür keinen Punkt; eine Antwort braucht vier Kernfakten für die volle Bewertung. Ab 07.10. zählt der Erscheinungstermin terminneutral (22.09. oder 08.10.), gleich für OpenAI, Gemini und Claude. Nachbewertung ab 15.09. nur dort, wo der gespeicherte Auszug von 500 Zeichen die vier Kernfakten selbst belegt: 8 Antworten von „teilweise“ (2) auf „vollständig“ (3), alle bei Gemini oder OpenAI; Messtage neu zusammengefasst (u. a. 03.10.: 29,2 % auf 31,3 %). Weitere Antworten wären vermutlich ebenfalls betroffen, lassen sich aber ohne Volltext nicht belegen und bleiben unverändert. Für die Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens gilt die korrigierte Regel in Grundlinie und Wirkungsfenster gleichermaßen. (2) Die Vollarchivierung aller Antworten (Vorgabe vom 05.06.) war seit dem 22.06. ausgefallen, weil die Änderung beim Umstieg auf Deploys aus der Quelle verloren ging; seit 22.06. liegen nur Auszüge von 500 Zeichen vor. Ab 07.10. wieder vollständig.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: (1) The list of key facts in the scoring scheme still contained the old release date of 22 September 2026. Since the postponement on 15 September answers name 8 October 2026 and received no point for it; an answer needs four key facts for the full score. From 7 October the release date counts date-neutrally (22 Sep or 8 Oct), equally for OpenAI, Gemini and Claude. Rescoring from 15 September only where the stored 500-character excerpt itself proves the four key facts: 8 answers from “partial” (2) to “full” (3), all Gemini or OpenAI; measurement days re-aggregated (e.g. 3 Oct: 29.2 % to 31.3 %). Further answers were probably affected too but cannot be proven without the full text and stay unchanged. For the book-release analysis the corrected rule applies equally to baseline and effect window. (2) Full archiving of all answers (requirement of 5 June) had stopped since 22 June because the change was lost when deployments switched to the source code; since 22 June only 500-character excerpts exist. Full archiving resumes from 7 October."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-16",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-06",
      "reason": "BEFUND, keine Lücke: Zwischen dem 15.09. (Direkt-Fragen 9 von 9 zitiert, Quellen u. a. marin-t-kael.de und Wikipedia) und dem 19.09.2026 (2 von 9) hat die Websuche von claude.ai aufgehört, Seiten über Marin T. Kael zu liefern. Seither enthalten die Suchtreffer fachfremde Seiten (Filmkritik zu Pauline Kael, Militär- und Bibliotheksseiten), keine einzige Quelle zum Autor. OpenAI (Bing-Suche) und Gemini (Google-Suche) finden den Autor im selben Zeitraum unverändert (Direkt-Fragen 3 von 3), die Website ist für Anthropics Abrufprogramme erreichbar und in der Brave-Suche vertreten. Die Ursache liegt damit beim Suchdienst von claude.ai, nicht bei der Messung. Claude-Werte ab dem 19.09. sind mit den Werten davor nicht vergleichbar.",
      "reason_en": "FINDING, not a gap: between 15 September (direct questions 9 of 9 cited, sources incl. marin-t-kael.de and Wikipedia) and 19 September 2026 (2 of 9), claude.ai web search stopped returning pages about Marin T. Kael. Since then its hits are unrelated pages (film criticism on Pauline Kael, military and library sites), not a single source about the author. OpenAI (Bing search) and Gemini (Google search) find the author unchanged in the same period (direct questions 3 of 3); the website is reachable for Anthropic fetchers and present in Brave Search. The cause therefore lies with the claude.ai search service, not the measurement. Claude values from 19 September are not comparable with earlier values."
    },
    {
      "channel": "openai_search",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-18",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-27",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Anbieters OpenAI: Seit dem 18.09.2026 beantwortet die OpenAI-Schnittstelle jede der 16 Fragen mit einem Fehler (Kontingent erschöpft). Umfang: 96 von 96 Zeilen an sechs Tagen (18.-23.09.) ohne Messwert, dazu eine erste Einzel-Fehlerzeile am 16.09. als Vorbote. Quelle: ai_citation_results, status=error, Fehlertext openai_quota_exhausted. FOLGE FUER DIE KOPFZAHL: Das Aggregat schließt den Anbieter korrekt aus (n=0, percent=null) - es entsteht KEINE falsche Null. Die Kopfzahl combined_primary ruht seit dem 18.09. aber auf zwei statt drei Anbietern. Weil OpenAI im Zeitraum davor durchgängig der stärkste Kanal war (22,9 bis 33,3 Prozent an den zehn Tagen vor dem Ausfall), fällt die Kopfzahl allein durch diesen Basiswechsel deutlich niedriger aus. Der sichtbare Rückgang von 23,1 (08.09.) auf 5,1 (23.09.) ist daher NICHT als gemessener Sichtbarkeitsverlust zu lesen. Tage ab dem 18.09. sind mit Tagen davor nicht vergleichbar. Eine Nachmessung ist nicht möglich, die Lücke ist kein Nullwert. NACHTRAG 25.09.2026: Der Ausfall dauert an, das Enddatum wurde von 23.09. auf 25.09. fortgeschrieben (Stand: 16 Fehlerzeilen je Tag bis einschließlich 25.09., D1 ai_citation_results). Präzisierung des Umfangs: Vom 22.09. bis 24.09. ruhte die Kopfzahl nicht auf zwei, sondern auf nur einem Anbieter (Gemini), weil in diesem Fenster zusätzlich der Claude-Web-Kanal ausfiel (eigener, inzwischen behobener Defekt). Die ursprüngliche Formulierung auf zwei statt drei Anbietern ist für diese drei Tage zu eng gefasst. NACHTRAG 28.09.2026: Der Ausfall dauert unverändert an, das Enddatum wurde von 25.09. auf 27.09. fortgeschrieben. Umfang jetzt 160 Fehlerzeilen an zehn Tagen (18.-27.09., je 16 je Tag, D1 ai_citation_results status=error). Am 27.09. ruhte die Kopfzahl erneut auf nur einem Anbieter (Gemini), weil zusätzlich der Claude-Web-Kanal ausfiel (eigener Eintrag zum 27.09.). Der dortige Anstieg von 9,4 auf 22,9 Prozent ist Grundlagenwechsel, kein gemessener Zugewinn. NACHTRAG 29.09.2026: Der Kanal misst wieder. Am 28.09. lieferte openai_search 16 von 16 Antworten ohne Fehlerzeile und mit echter Bewertung (1 full_citation, 2 partial_book, 6 genre_baseline_no_marin, 6 not_found_no_anchor; Quelle D1 ai_citation_results). Die Lücke ist damit auf den 18.09. bis 27.09. begrenzt und geschlossen. Die Ursache der Erschöpfung ist unverändert offen; ein erneuter Ausfall während des Wirkungsfensters ab 08.10. ist nicht ausgeschlossen.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement gap, not a zero: from 18 to 27 September 2026 the provider openai_search returned only error rows (160 rows across ten days, 16 per day, reason openai_quota_exhausted; source D1 ai_citation_results status=error). On those days the headline figure combined_primary rested on two of three providers instead of three, and on 27 September on one provider only, because the Claude web channel failed as well (separate entry). Day-to-day movements across this boundary are changes of basis, not measured change. Addendum 29 September 2026: the channel measures again. On 28 September openai_search returned 16 of 16 answers with no error row and with real scoring. The gap is therefore bounded to 18 to 27 September and closed. The cause of the exhaustion remains open; a further outage during the effect window from 8 October cannot be ruled out."
    },
    {
      "channel": "ai_citation_batch_anthropic",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-18",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-03",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Prüfkanals Claude-API-Stapel (Modelle claude, claude_opus, claude_sonnet) an den Ankertagen 18., 21., 24. und 27.09.2026. Der letzte eingestellte Stapelauftrag trägt den 15.09.2026 (ai_citation_batches, 114 Zeilen gesamt, kein Eintrag danach); an den vier genannten Ankertagen wurde weder ein Auftrag eingestellt noch eine Antwortzeile geschrieben, auch keine Fehlerzeile. URSACHE, am Objekt lokalisiert: nicht der Kanal, sondern die Buchhaltung des Stufen-Läufers. Der Läufer verbuchte jede Stufe als Erfolg, die keine Ausnahme WARF; eine Stufe, die ihren Fehlschlag regulär als Rückgabewert meldet, landete unbesehen im Ergebnisfeld, und die äußere Erfolgsmeldung gewann. Deshalb wies der Laufbericht für jeden dieser vier Tage 16 von 16 Stufen als erfolgreich aus, während der Kanal schwieg. Behoben am 30.09.2026: nur eine ausdrückliche Fehlschlag-Meldung der obersten Ebene zählt als Fehlschlag, Stufen ohne dieses Feld bleiben unberührt; Regressionstest über neun Rückgabeformen. WIRKUNG AUF DIE AUSWERTUNG: keine auf die Kopfzahl combined_primary, die auf den Web-Anbietern OpenAI, Gemini und Claude-Web ruht und den API-Stapel nicht enthält. Betroffen sind die Prüfwerte score_percent und by_category, die über alle Modelle rechnen: sie ruhen an diesen vier Tagen auf zwei statt fünf Modellen und sind mit den Tagen davor nicht vergleichbar. Der Ausfall fiel zusammen mit dem OpenAI-Ausfall desselben Zeitraums (Eintrag id 17); beide haben keine gemeinsame Ursache. NICHT NACHMESSBAR: eine Stapelmessung lässt sich nicht auf einen vergangenen Tag datieren. Die vier Ankertage bleiben Lücke, kein Nullwert. NACHTRAG 01.10.2026: Der Ankertag 30.09.2026 gehört ebenfalls zur Lücke (0 Antwortzeilen der drei Modelle). Mit der am 30.09. behobenen Buchhaltung meldete die Stufe an diesem Tag erstmals ihren Fehlertext, wörtlich: Anbieter-Antwort invalid_request_error, das Guthaben des Schnittstellen-Kontos reiche nicht aus. Damit ist die Ursache des Kanal-Ausfalls selbst benannt: erschöpftes Guthaben beim Anbieter, keine technische Störung. Belegt ist sie für den 30.09.; für 18. bis 27.09. ist sie wahrscheinlich, aber nicht belegt, weil der Fehlertext dort nicht festgehalten wurde. Die Abgrenzung der Wirkung oben gilt unverändert. NACHTRAG 04.10.2026: Der Ankertag 03.10.2026 gehört ebenfalls zur Lücke (0 Antwortzeilen der drei Modelle); die Stufe meldete denselben Fehlertext zum erschöpften Guthaben (pipeline_runs id 0ef2c9cd, stages_failed 1). Wirkungsabgrenzung unverändert.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement outage of the Claude API batch control channel (models claude, claude_opus, claude_sonnet) on the anchor days 18, 21, 24 and 27 September 2026. The last batch job on record was submitted on 15 September 2026; on the four anchor days listed no job was submitted and no answer row was written, not even an error row. CAUSE, located in the code: not the channel but the stage runner's accounting. The runner recorded every stage as successful unless it THREW; a stage reporting its own failure as a return value had that value stored unexamined while the outer success verdict prevailed. The run report therefore showed 16 of 16 stages successful on each of those days while the channel was silent. Fixed on 30 September 2026: only an explicit top-level failure verdict counts as a failure, stages without that field are unaffected; covered by a regression test over nine return shapes. EFFECT ON ANALYSIS: none on the headline figure combined_primary, which rests on the web providers OpenAI, Gemini and Claude Web and does not include the API batch. Affected are the audit figures score_percent and by_category, computed across all models: on these four days they rest on two models instead of five and are not comparable with preceding days. The outage coincided with the OpenAI outage of the same period (entry id 17); the two share no cause. NOT RETROACTIVELY MEASURABLE: a batch measurement cannot be dated to a past day. The four anchor days remain a gap, not a zero. ADDENDUM 1 October 2026: The anchor day 30 September 2026 belongs to this gap as well (0 answer rows from the three models). With the accounting fix of 30 September, the stage reported its error text for the first time on that day, verbatim: provider response invalid_request_error, the credit balance of the API account is too low. This identifies the cause of the channel outage itself: exhausted provider credit, not a technical fault. It is documented for 30 September; for 18 to 27 September it is likely but not documented, because the error text was not recorded on those days. The delimitation of effects above is unchanged. ADDENDUM 4 October 2026: The anchor day 3 October 2026 belongs to this gap as well (0 answer rows from the three models); the stage reported the same error text on exhausted credit (pipeline_runs id 0ef2c9cd, stages_failed 1). The delimitation of effects is unchanged."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-18",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-18",
      "reason": "Claude-Web hat am Ankertag 18.09.2026 nicht gemessen. Der Tageslauf hinterließ weder einen Tagesnachweis noch eine Snapshot-Zeile; gemessen wurde einen Tag später, am 19.09.2026 06:31 UTC, über die Nachholung für einen gescheiterten Messtag (48 von 48 Zeilen mit Messwert, claude_web_snapshots id 198). Die Ursache des Ausfalls am 18.09. ist nicht mehr feststellbar, das Ablaufprotokoll reicht nur bis zum 23.09. zurück. WIRKUNG: Der veröffentlichte Trendpunkt vom 18.09. trägt für Claude-Web die Messung vom 19.09.; er ist also kein Messwert dieses Tages, sondern ein Wert, der erst nachträglich eingetroffen ist. Für die Grundlinie zum Buchstart zählt der 18.09. bei Claude-Web als Messung neben dem Raster (einen Tag versetzt), nicht als Ankertag-Messung. Gefunden am 01.10.2026 bei der Auswertung für den Aktivitäts-Bericht Q3: die laufende Prüfung hatte den Tag als gedeckt geführt, weil sie den nachgereichten Wert als eigene Messung des Tages zählte.",
      "reason_en": "Claude Web did not measure on the anchor day 18 September 2026. The daily run left neither a completion marker nor a snapshot row; the measurement took place one day later, on 19 September 2026 06:31 UTC, through the catch-up for a failed measurement day (48 of 48 rows with a value, claude_web_snapshots id 198). The cause of the miss on 18 September can no longer be established; the run log only reaches back to 23 September. EFFECT: the published trend point for 18 September carries the Claude Web measurement of 19 September, so it is not a measurement of that day but a value that arrived later. For the baseline before the book launch, 18 September counts as an off-grid Claude Web measurement (one day late), not as an anchor-day measurement. Found on 1 October 2026 while preparing the Q3 activity report: the running check had counted the day as covered because it treated the late value as a measurement of that day."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_scorer_suchnichtfund",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-06",
      "reason": "METHODIK-KORREKTUR (keine Lücke): Seit dem 19.09.2026 antwortet Claude (claude.ai mit Websuche) auf die Direkt-Fragen häufig mit „keine Person namens Marin T. Kael gefunden, meinten Sie Pauline Kael?“. Das Bewertungsschema zählte jede Nennung von Pauline Kael als Verwechslung (−3), auch wenn die Antwort ausdrücklich meldet, nichts gefunden zu haben. Das ist ehrliches Nichtwissen und wird ab dem 07.10.2026 mit 0 bewertet (not_found_disclaimed); eine reine Verwechslung ohne Suchaussage bleibt −3. 13 Claude-Antworten vom 19.09. bis 06.10. wurden umbewertet (vorher −3, nachher 0) und die betroffenen fünf Messtage neu zusammengefasst; Rohantworten unverändert. Claude-Wert am 06.10.: vorher −6,2 %, nachher +2,1 %; Kopfzahl 12,5 % → 15,3 %. Gleiche Regel im Messablauf für OpenAI und Gemini (Version 5c2f8f41).",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CORRECTION (not a gap): since 19 September 2026 Claude (claude.ai with web search) often answers the direct questions with “no person named Marin T. Kael found, did you mean Pauline Kael?”. The scoring scheme counted every mention of Pauline Kael as a confusion (−3), even when the answer explicitly reports finding nothing. That is honest non-knowledge and is scored 0 (not_found_disclaimed) from 7 October 2026; a plain confusion without a search statement remains −3. 13 Claude answers from 19 September to 6 October were rescored (before −3, after 0) and the five affected measurement days re-aggregated; raw answers unchanged. Claude value on 6 October: before −6.2 %, after +2.1 %; headline 12.5 % → 15.3 %. Same rule in the measurement run for OpenAI and Gemini (version 5c2f8f41)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_book_launch",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-22",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-22",
      "reason": "Dokumentierter Eingriff, KEIN Messausfall. Am 22.09.2026 wird der erste Band der Saga im Handel verfügbar. Das ist der größte geplante Eingriff der Phase 1 und wird deshalb vorab festgeschrieben, damit die Vorher-Nachher-Auswertung nicht nachträglich begründet wird. HYPOTHESE: Handelsverfügbarkeit erzeugt erstmals von Dritten geführte, maschinenlesbare Nachweise (Händler-Katalog, Bibliotheks-Metadaten, ISBN-Register). Erwartet wird, dass such-gestützte Modelle diese Nachweise abrufen und die Trefferquote im Direkt-Kanal (Fragen D1-D3) früher steigt als im Empfehlungs-Kanal (GR1-GR6), weil Empfehlungen zusätzlich Rezeptions-Signale brauchen. NULLHYPOTHESE: kein Unterschied zwischen den Messfenstern. MESSFENSTER: Grundlinie 23.08.-21.09.2026 (10 Ankertage der 3-Tage-Kadenz), Wirkungsfenster 22.09.-22.10.2026 (10 Ankertage), Beobachtung bis 21.12.2026 für verzögerte Effekte. KENNZAHL: combined_primary je Messtag (Web-Anbieter OpenAI, Gemini, Claude-Web, gleichgewichtet), zusätzlich getrennt nach den drei Kanälen Direkt / Saga-Wissen / Empfehlung. AUSWERTUNG: Vorher-Nachher-Vergleich mit abgezogener CUSUM-Grundliniendrift, damit ein laufender Trend nicht als Wirkung des Eingriffs gelesen wird. UNVERAENDERT: 16 feste Fragen, Anbieter-Panel und 3-Tage-Kadenz werden für den Eingriff NICHT angepasst.",
      "reason_en": "Documented intervention, NOT a measurement gap. On 2026-09-22 the first volume of the saga becomes available in retail. This is the largest planned intervention of phase 1 and is registered in advance so that the pre/post analysis is not justified after the fact. HYPOTHESIS: retail availability creates, for the first time, third-party machine-readable records (retailer catalogue, library metadata, ISBN registries). Search-augmented models are expected to retrieve these records, so the hit rate in the direct channel (questions D1-D3) should rise earlier than in the recommendation channel (GR1-GR6), which additionally requires reception signals. NULL HYPOTHESIS: no difference between the measurement windows. WINDOWS: baseline 2026-08-23 to 2026-09-21 (10 anchor days of the 3-day cadence), effect window 2026-09-22 to 2026-10-22 (10 anchor days), observation until 2026-12-21 for delayed effects. METRIC: combined_primary per measurement day (web providers OpenAI, Gemini, Claude-Web, equally weighted), additionally split by the three channels direct / saga-knowledge / recommendation. ANALYSIS: pre/post comparison with CUSUM baseline drift subtracted, so an ongoing trend is not read as an effect of the intervention. UNCHANGED: the 16 fixed questions, the provider panel and the 3-day cadence are NOT adjusted for this intervention."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-24",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-24",
      "reason": "Beeinträchtigung des Claude-Web-Kanals am Messtag 24.09.2026, am selben Tag nachgemessen. Das Laufzeit-Umfeld des Mess-Werkzeugs war seit dem 22.09.2026 unvollständig: der Programm-Interpreter, mit dem der Tageslauf startet, war im Zuge einer unabhängigen Aufräumung eines anderen Arbeitsbereichs verschoben worden. Der planmäßige Lauf am 24.09. um 08:10 brach deshalb sofort ab, ohne eine einzige Frage zu stellen, und ohne dass eine Fehlermeldung an eine überwachte Stelle ging. Beleg: Fehlerausgabe des Tageslaufs, Abbruchcode 126, Meldung \"No such file or directory\" zum Interpreter-Pfad; kein Tagesnachweis für den 24.09.\nUMFANG: Betroffen ist genau ein Messtag (24.09.). Die Tage 22. und 23.09. sind nach der 3-Tage-Kadenz ohnehin keine Messtage des Kanals; ihre Trendpunkte tragen planmäßig die Messung vom 21.09.\nFOLGE FUER DIE KOPFZAHL: Zusammen mit dem gleichzeitigen Ausfall des Anbieters OpenAI ruhte die Kopfzahl am 22., 23. und 24.09. auf nur EINEM Anbieter (Gemini) statt auf dreien. Der sichtbare Anstieg von 5,1 (23.09.) auf 20,8 (24.09.) ist daher ein Wechsel der Rechengrundlage und kein gemessener Zugewinn. Die Ergebnisseite weist die Zahl der tragenden Anbieter je Tag aus.\nBEHEBUNG: Der Kanal wurde am 24.09. auf einen vorhandenen Interpreter umgestellt und die Tagesmessung um 16:59 Ortszeit nachgefahren, rund achteinhalb Stunden später als planmäßig. Diese Abweichung der Tageszeit ist bei der Auslegung des Messpunkts zu berücksichtigen. Zusätzlich prüft die Integritätsprüfung seither vor jedem Messtag, ob das Erhebungswerkzeug überhaupt startfähig ist und ob der Tagesnachweis vorliegt; ein stiller Ausfall dieser Art wird damit am selben Tag sichtbar.",
      "reason_en": null
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-09-27",
      "gap_end": "2026-09-27",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Anbieters Claude (Web) am Ankertag 27.09.2026. Der Tageslauf feuerte alle 48 Frage/Modell-Paare, erhielt aber auf jedes einzelne eine Drosselungs-Antwort des Anbieters (Fehlerkennung comp-429). Keine der 48 Zeilen trägt eine Antwort, in keiner wurde eine Websuche ausgelöst, die Antwortzeiten lagen bei 1 bis 3 Sekunden. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots id 201 (run_ts 2026-09-27T06:13:35, total_rows 48, alle drei Stufen n=0 n_error=16) und claude_web_results snapshot_id 201 (48 von 48 status=error). Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. FOLGE FUER DIE KOPFZAHL, und sie zeigt in die ungewohnte Richtung: Weil der Anbieter OpenAI seit dem 18.09. ebenfalls ausfällt, ruht combined_primary am 27.09. auf nur EINEM Anbieter (Gemini). Der veröffentlichte Wert steigt von 9,4 Prozent (26.09.) auf 22,9 Prozent (27.09.) - das ist KEIN gemessener Zugewinn. Am 26.09. ging die Claude-Messung vom 24.09. mit 0,0 Prozent in den Mittelwert ein; am 27.09. fällt dieser Beitrag ersatzlos weg, sodass allein Gemini die Kopfzahl bildet. Gemini selbst bewegte sich nur von 18,8 auf 22,9 Prozent. Der Sprung von 13,5 Prozentpunkten ist also überwiegend Grundlagenwechsel. Ein gescheiterter Messlauf wirkt hier stärker als gar kein Lauf, weil er den zuvor getragenen Wert des Anbieters verdrängt. Quelle: /api/timeseries by_provider. MASSNAHME 28.09.2026: Die Ergebnisseite benannte den Grundlagenwechsel bis dahin fest als Rückgang, weil der Hinweis an einem Tag entstand, an dem der Wegfall die Zahl drückte; sie nennt seitdem die Bewegung ohne Richtung (DE und EN). NEBENBEFUND, unverändert seit dem 12.09.: Lauf-Log und Push melden den Lauf als abgeschlossen und setzen den Tagesnachweis (Inhalt 0/48), obwohl keine Zeile einen Messwert trägt. Damit greift die Nachholung nicht, die für genau diesen Fall gebaut wurde. Ob der Tagesnachweis in diesem Fall zurückzuhalten und der Messtag erneut zu versuchen ist, verändert die Messkadenz und ist deshalb ein Entscheid, kein stiller Umbau; er liegt dem Betreiber seit dem 15.09. vor und wurde am 28.09. mit diesem Vorfall als Beleg erneut vorgelegt.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement outage of the Claude (web) provider on anchor day 2026-09-27. The daily run fired all 48 question/model pairs but received a throttling response (error code comp-429) to every single one. None of the 48 rows carries an answer, no web search was triggered, response times were 1 to 3 seconds. Source: claude_web_snapshots id 201 and claude_web_results snapshot_id 201 (48 of 48 status=error). Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero. CONSEQUENCE FOR THE HEADLINE FIGURE, and it points in the unfamiliar direction: because the OpenAI provider has also been failing since 18.09., combined_primary on 27.09. rests on only ONE provider (Gemini). The published value rises from 9.4 per cent (26.09.) to 22.9 per cent (27.09.) - this is NOT a measured gain. On 26.09. the Claude measurement of 24.09. still entered the mean at 0.0 per cent; on 27.09. that contribution drops out entirely, leaving Gemini alone to form the headline figure. Gemini itself moved only from 18.8 to 22.9 per cent. The jump of 13.5 percentage points is therefore mostly a change of basis. A failed measurement run has a stronger effect here than no run at all, because it displaces the provider value carried previously. ACTION 2026-09-28: until then the results page named the change of basis fixedly as a decline, because the note was written on a day when the dropout pushed the figure down; it now names the movement without a direction (DE and EN)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "claude_web",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-03",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-03",
      "reason": "Messausfall des Anbieters Claude (Web) am Ankertag 03.10.2026, gleiches Bild wie am 27.09. (Eintrag id 21). Der Tageslauf feuerte alle 48 Frage/Modell-Paare und erhielt auf jedes eine Drosselungs-Antwort des Anbieters (Fehlerkennung comp-429); der ganze Lauf dauerte knapp vier Minuten statt rund zwanzig, keine Zeile trägt eine Antwort. Quelle: claude_web_snapshots id 203 (run_ts 2026-10-03T06:13:28, total_rows 48) und claude_web_results snapshot_id 203 (48 von 48 status=error, je 16 in allen drei Stufen). Nachmessen ist nicht möglich, eine Lücke ist kein Nullwert. FOLGE FUER DIE KOPFZAHL: combined_primary ruht am 03.10. auf OpenAI und Gemini statt auf drei Anbietern. Der veröffentlichte Wert steigt von 13,9 Prozent (02.10., drei Anbieter, Claude-Wert vom 30.09. geliehen) auf 29,2 Prozent (03.10., zwei Anbieter). Wie am 27.09. ist der Sprung ganz oder überwiegend Grundlagenwechsel, kein gemessener Zugewinn: der Claude-Beitrag, der den Mittelwert drückte, fällt weg. Quelle: /api/timeseries by_provider. Damit sind von den letzten drei Ankertagen zwei ohne Claude-Messung (27.09., 03.10.). Wie am 27.09. setzte der Lauf den Tagesnachweis (Inhalt 0/48), sodass die Nachholung nicht greift; der Entscheid dazu liegt dem Betreiber vor.",
      "reason_en": "Measurement outage of the Claude (web) provider on anchor day 2026-10-03, same pattern as on 27.09. (entry id 21). The daily run fired all 48 question/model pairs and received a throttling response (error code comp-429) to each; the whole run took just under four minutes instead of about twenty, no row carries an answer. Source: claude_web_snapshots id 203 (run_ts 2026-10-03T06:13:28, total_rows 48) and claude_web_results snapshot_id 203 (48 of 48 status=error, 16 in each of the three tiers). Re-measuring is not possible; a gap is not a zero. CONSEQUENCE FOR THE HEADLINE FIGURE: combined_primary on 03.10. rests on OpenAI and Gemini instead of three providers. The published value rises from 13.9 per cent (02.10., three providers, Claude value carried over from 30.09.) to 29.2 per cent (03.10., two providers). As on 27.09., the jump is wholly or mostly a change of basis, not a measured gain: the Claude contribution that held the mean down drops out. Source: /api/timeseries by_provider. Two of the last three anchor days thus lack a Claude measurement (27.09., 03.10.)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_claude_api_retired",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-04",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-04",
      "reason": "METHODIK-ÄNDERUNG (keine Lücke): Der Prüfkanal über die Claude-Programmierschnittstelle (Modelle claude, claude_sonnet, claude_opus, ohne Websuche) ist ab dem 04.10.2026 eingestellt. Er ging nie in die Kopfzahl ein und lieferte seit dem 15.09. keine Antworten mehr (Eintrag 22). Claude wird ausschließlich über claude.ai mit Websuche gemessen (drei Modellstufen, Kopfzahl-Anbieter). Gleichzeitig wurde der claude.ai-Messlauf gehärtet: Nach den Ausfällen vom 27.09. und 03.10. (jeweils 48 Drosselungs-Antworten, weil das Nutzungslimit des Messkontos bis zu seiner Rücksetzung am selben Nachmittag erschöpft war) prüft der Lauf vorher das Limit, bricht nach drei Drosselungen in Folge ab und wird am selben Tag bis zu sechsmal wiederholt. Ein Lauf ohne ausreichend Messwerte wird nicht mehr als Messtag verbucht; der tatsächliche Messzeitpunkt steht in run_ts.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CHANGE (not a gap): the control channel via the Claude API (models claude, claude_sonnet, claude_opus, without web search) is discontinued as of 4 October 2026. It never entered the headline figure and had returned no answers since 15 September (entry 22). Claude is measured exclusively through claude.ai with web search (three model tiers, headline provider). At the same time the claude.ai run was hardened: after the outages of 27 September and 3 October (48 throttling responses each, because the usage limit of the measurement account was exhausted until its reset the same afternoon) the run now checks the limit first, aborts after three consecutive throttling responses and is retried up to six times on the same day. A run without enough values is no longer booked as a measurement day; the actual measurement time is recorded in run_ts."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_claude_modell",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-07",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "METHODIK-ÄNDERUNG (keine Lücke): Claude wird ab dem nächsten Messtag (09.10.2026) mit dem jeweils neuesten Opus-Modell auf claude.ai gemessen (derzeit Claude Opus 5.5), über das Abo, mit Websuche und in einem Inkognito-Chat ohne Verlauf und ohne Gedächtnis. Bis zum 06.10. liefen drei ältere Modellstufen (Haiku 4.5, Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.8) in normalen Chats. Grund: Die älteren Modelle gaben seit etwa 16.09. nach einem ersten fachfremden Suchtreffer auf (Eintrag zum Befund claude_web 16.09.–06.10.); eine Einzelprobe am 07.10. mit Opus 5.5 im Inkognito-Chat fand den Autor über die Website und die eigenen Kanäle. Die Claude-Zeitreihe hat an dieser Stelle einen Bruch; Werte davor und danach sind nicht direkt vergleichbar.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD CHANGE (not a gap): from the next measurement day (9 October 2026) Claude is measured with the newest Opus model on claude.ai (currently Claude Opus 5.5), through the subscription, with web search and in an incognito chat without history or memory. Until 6 October three older model tiers ran (Haiku 4.5, Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.8) in normal chats. Reason: since about 16 September the older models gave up after a first unrelated search hit (see finding entry claude_web 16 Sep to 6 Oct); a single probe on 7 October with Opus 5.5 in an incognito chat found the author via the website and his own channels. The Claude series has a break at this point; values before and after are not directly comparable."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_book_launch_amendment",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-07",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "ÄNDERUNG ZUR VORREGISTRIERUNG des Eingriffs Buch-Erscheinen (Eintrag id 18), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 VOR dem Ereignis am 08.10.2026. Anlass sind Änderungen an der Messung vom 07.10., die die Festlegung „Anbieter-Panel wird nicht angepasst“ berühren; sie sind durch Messprobleme begründet (Einträge claude_web 16.09.–06.10. und method_claude_modell), nicht durch Zwischenergebnisse.\n(1) PRIMÄRE AUSWERTUNG nur auf den Anbietern mit unverändertem Panel seit 19.08.: OpenAI-Suche und Gemini, Kopfzahl als einfacher Mittelwert dieser beiden je Ankertag, dazu die drei Kanäle Direkt / Saga-Wissen / Empfehlung. Grundlinie wie registriert 08.09.–07.10.2026: Gemini an 10 Ankertagen, OpenAI an 6 (09., 12., 15., 30.09., 03., 06.10.; Ausfall 18.–27.09. registriert). Wirkungsfenster 08.10.–07.11.2026, Beobachtung bis 06.01.2027. Hypothese, Nullhypothese und Auswertung (Vorher-Nachher mit abgezogener CUSUM-Grundliniendrift) unverändert.\n(2) CLAUDE SEKUNDÄR UND NUR BESCHREIBEND: Claude wird ab 07.10. mit dem neuesten Opus-Modell im Inkognito-Chat gemessen; die Reihe davor (Haiku 4.5, Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.8) ist nicht vergleichbar. Als einzige Grundlinie der neuen Konfiguration dient eine einmalige Messung am 07.10.2026 vor dem Erscheinen (außerhalb des 3-Tage-Rasters, nur zu diesem Zweck); danach Ankertage ab 09.10. Kein Signifikanzurteil für Claude.\n(3) VORAB-VERFÜGBARKEIT: Taschenbuch und Hardcover sind seit 30.09.2026 bestellbar, offizielles Erscheinen und eBook am 08.10. Zusätzlich zur registrierten Grundlinie wird eine Sensitivitäts-Grundlinie 08.09.–29.09. ohne Vorab-Verfügbarkeit berichtet.\n(4) KEINE WIRKUNG AUF DIE PRIMÄRAUSWERTUNG haben die Bewertungskorrektur vom 07.10. (betraf nur Claude-Zeilen 19.09.–06.10.) und die Anzeige des Verlaufs nur an Ankertagen (die Auswertung nutzt ohnehin nur Ankertage).",
      "reason_en": "AMENDMENT TO THE PRE-REGISTRATION of the book-release intervention (entry id 18), fixed on 7 October 2026 BEFORE the event on 8 October 2026. It is prompted by measurement changes of 7 October that touch the commitment “the provider panel is not adjusted”; they are justified by measurement problems (entries claude_web 16 Sep to 6 Oct and method_claude_modell), not by interim results.\n(1) PRIMARY ANALYSIS only on the providers whose panel is unchanged since 19 August: OpenAI search and Gemini, headline as the simple mean of these two per anchor day, plus the three channels Direct / Saga knowledge / Recommendation. Baseline as registered 8 Sep to 7 Oct 2026: Gemini on 10 anchor days, OpenAI on 6 (9, 12, 15, 30 Sep, 3, 6 Oct; outage 18 to 27 Sep registered). Effect window 8 Oct to 7 Nov 2026, observation until 6 Jan 2027. Hypothesis, null hypothesis and analysis (before/after with CUSUM baseline drift removed) unchanged.\n(2) CLAUDE SECONDARY AND DESCRIPTIVE ONLY: from 7 October Claude is measured with the newest Opus model in an incognito chat; the earlier series (Haiku 4.5, Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.8) is not comparable. The only baseline of the new configuration is a single measurement on 7 October 2026 before release (outside the three-day grid, for this purpose only); then anchor days from 9 October. No significance judgement for Claude.\n(3) EARLY AVAILABILITY: paperback and hardcover have been orderable since 30 September 2026; official release and ebook on 8 October. In addition to the registered baseline, a sensitivity baseline 8 Sep to 29 Sep without early availability is reported.\n(4) NO EFFECT ON THE PRIMARY ANALYSIS from the scoring correction of 7 October (affected only Claude rows 19 Sep to 6 Oct) or from showing the trend only on anchor days (the analysis uses anchor days anyway)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_book_launch_amendment2",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-07",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "ZWEITE ÄNDERUNG ZUR VORREGISTRIERUNG Buch-Erscheinen (Einträge id 18 und intervention_book_launch_amendment), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Ereignis, ohne Kenntnis von Wirkungsdaten. (a) Berichtigung zu Punkt 4 der ersten Änderung: Die Korrektur des Erscheinungstermins im Bewertungsschema (Eintrag method_scorer_termin) betrifft auch OpenAI und Gemini (8 Antworten nachbewertet). Weil die Grundlinie dadurch nur teilweise nachbewertet werden konnte (Belege nur aus Auszügen von 500 Zeichen), das Wirkungsfenster aber vollständig nach der neuen Regel bewertet wird, kann der punktbasierte Direkt-Kanal im Vergleich nach oben verzerrt sein. (b) Deshalb zusätzlich als Robustheits-Kennzahl die TREFFERQUOTE: Anteil der Antworten, die den Autor korrekt nennen (Wert über 0), je Anbieter und Kanal. Sie ist von der Schwelle zwischen teilweiser und voller Zitation unabhängig. Eine Wirkung im Direkt-Kanal wird nur berichtet, wenn sie in Punkten UND in der Trefferquote auftritt. (c) Auswertungsdetails, festgelegt vor den Daten: Grundliniendrift je Anbieter als lineare Steigung über alle Ankertage ab 19.08.2026; Effekt je Kanal als Mittel der Anbieter-Effekte (OpenAI, Gemini) mit 95-%-Bootstrap über Ankertage (10.000 Ziehungen, fester Startwert); Zeitpunkt der ersten Abweichung je Kanal als erster Alarm eines einseitigen CUSUM (k = 0,5, h = 5) im Wirkungsfenster. Letzter Ankertag im Wirkungsfenster ist der 05.11.2026.",
      "reason_en": "SECOND AMENDMENT TO THE PRE-REGISTRATION of the book release (entries id 18 and intervention_book_launch_amendment), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the event, without knowledge of effect data. (a) Correction to point 4 of the first amendment: the release-date correction in the scoring scheme (entry method_scorer_termin) also affects OpenAI and Gemini (8 answers rescored). Because the baseline could only be partly rescored (evidence only from 500-character excerpts) while the effect window is fully scored under the new rule, the point-based Direct channel may be biased upwards in the comparison. (b) Therefore the HIT RATE is added as a robustness metric: share of answers that correctly name the author (score above 0), per provider and channel. It does not depend on the threshold between partial and full citation. An effect in the Direct channel is only reported if it appears in points AND in the hit rate. (c) Analysis details fixed before the data: baseline drift per provider as a linear slope over all anchor days from 19 August 2026; effect per channel as the mean of provider effects (OpenAI, Gemini) with a 95 % bootstrap over anchor days (10,000 draws, fixed seed); time of first deviation per channel as the first alarm of a one-sided CUSUM (k = 0.5, h = 5) within the effect window. The last anchor day in the effect window is 5 November 2026."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_book_launch_amendment3",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-07",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-07",
      "reason": "DRITTE ÄNDERUNG ZUR VORREGISTRIERUNG Buch-Erscheinen, festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Ereignis und vor dem ersten Ankertag des Wirkungsfensters (09.10.), ohne Wirkungsdaten. Präzisiert Teil (b) der zweiten Änderung: Die Trefferquote im Direkt-Kanal liegt in der Grundlinie bereits bei 92,2 Prozent; bis 100 Prozent bleiben höchstens 7,8 Prozentpunkte, die kleinste sicher erkennbare Verschiebung beträgt aber 15,7. Die Regel „Effekt nur, wenn Punkte UND Trefferquote signifikant“ könnte einen Anstieg im Direkt-Kanal deshalb nie bestätigen. Neu: Die Trefferquote dient im Direkt-Kanal als Vorzeichenprüfung. Ein Direkt-Effekt in Punkten wird berichtet, wenn sein Intervall die Null ausschließt und der Schätzwert der Trefferquote dasselbe Vorzeichen hat; widerspricht das Vorzeichen, wird der Effekt als nicht belastbar ausgewiesen. In allen anderen Kanälen bleibt die Trefferquote eine vollwertige Robustheits-Kennzahl wie in der zweiten Änderung.",
      "reason_en": "THIRD AMENDMENT TO THE PRE-REGISTRATION of the book release, fixed on 7 October 2026 before the event and before the first anchor day of the effect window (9 Oct), without effect data. Refines part (b) of the second amendment: the Direct-channel hit rate is already 92.2 percent in the baseline; at most 7.8 percentage points remain up to 100 percent, while the minimum reliably detectable shift is 15.7. The rule “effect only if points AND hit rate are significant” could therefore never confirm an increase in the Direct channel. New: in the Direct channel the hit rate serves as a sign check. A Direct effect in points is reported if its interval excludes zero and the hit-rate estimate has the same sign; if the sign contradicts, the effect is reported as not robust. In all other channels the hit rate remains a full robustness metric as in the second amendment."
    },
    {
      "channel": "intervention_book_launch",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-08",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-08",
      "reason": "Dokumentierter Eingriff, KEIN Messausfall. ERSETZT den Eintrag vom 22.09.2026 (id 12), der überholt ist: Der Erscheinungstermin von Band I wurde am 15.09.2026 öffentlich vom 22.09. auf den 08.10.2026 verschoben (Quelle: Termin-Hinweisseite der Website, Konfigurationswert releaseDate). Die alte Vorregistrierung hätte ab dem 22.09. ein Wirkungsfenster gemessen, in dem der Eingriff gar nicht stattfindet - ein Nullbefund wäre fälschlich als ausbleibende Wirkung des Erscheinens berichtet worden. Die Korrektur erfolgt VOR dem Ereignis und ist allein durch die Terminverschiebung begründet, nicht durch Zwischenergebnisse. UNVERAENDERT gegenüber id 12 bleiben Hypothese, Nullhypothese, Kennzahl und Auswertung: HYPOTHESE: Handelsverfügbarkeit erzeugt erstmals von Dritten geführte, maschinenlesbare Nachweise (Händler-Katalog, Bibliotheks-Metadaten, ISBN-Register); erwartet wird, dass such-gestützte Modelle diese Nachweise abrufen und die Trefferquote im Direkt-Kanal (D1-D3) früher steigt als im Empfehlungs-Kanal (GR1-GR6). NULLHYPOTHESE: kein Unterschied zwischen den Messfenstern. KENNZAHL: combined_primary je Messtag (OpenAI, Gemini, Claude-Web, gleichgewichtet), zusätzlich getrennt nach Direkt / Saga-Wissen / Empfehlung. AUSWERTUNG: Vorher-Nachher-Vergleich mit abgezogener CUSUM-Grundliniendrift. NEU DATIERT: Grundlinie 08.09.-07.10.2026, Wirkungsfenster 08.10.-07.11.2026, Beobachtung auf verzögerte Effekte bis 06.01.2027. VORBEHALT: Die Grundlinie ist durch den OpenAI-Ausfall ab 18.09. (siehe Eintrag openai_search) auf zwei Anbieter verdünnt. Solange der Anbieter fehlt, ist der Vorher-Nachher-Vergleich auf der vorregistrierten Drei-Anbieter-Basis nicht auswertbar; die Wiederherstellung des Anbieters vor dem 08.10. ist Voraussetzung für die Auswertung. Anbieter-Panel, 16 feste Fragen und 3-Tage-Kadenz werden für den Eingriff NICHT angepasst.",
      "reason_en": null
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_claude_modelle",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-09",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-09",
      "reason": "METHODIK-FESTLEGUNG (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: Der Anbieter Claude wird ab dem Ankertag 09.10.2026 mit allen drei Modellfamilien gemessen, jeweils dem neuesten auf claude.ai verfügbaren Modell von Opus, Sonnet und Haiku, in einem Inkognito-Chat mit Websuche. Jedes Modell bekommt dieselben 16 Fragen wie OpenAI und Gemini. Der Wert des Anbieters Claude ist der einfache Mittelwert der drei Modelle; die Modelle werden einzeln mit denselben drei Fragearten ausgewiesen. Bis zum 06.10. waren es feste ältere Stufen (Opus 4.8, Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5); am 07.10. lief einmalig nur Opus 5.5. Der Wechsel der Modellstände verändert die Claude-Werte unabhängig vom Buch-Erscheinen; die vorregistrierte Auswertung des Erscheinens stützt sich deshalb auf OpenAI und Gemini, Claude wird dort nur beschreibend berichtet.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD DEFINITION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: From the anchor day 9 October 2026 the provider Claude is measured with all three model families, each the newest model available on claude.ai of Opus, Sonnet and Haiku, in an incognito chat with web search. Each model receives the same 16 questions as OpenAI and Gemini. The value of the provider Claude is the simple mean of the three models; the models are reported individually with the same three question types. Until 6 October these were fixed older tiers (Opus 4.8, Sonnet 4.6, Haiku 4.5); on 7 October only Opus 5.5 ran once. The change of model versions alters the Claude values independently of the book release; the pre-registered analysis of the release therefore relies on OpenAI and Gemini and reports Claude descriptively only."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_openai_nachholung",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-09",
      "gap_end": "2027-01-06",
      "reason": "METHODIK-FESTLEGUNG (keine Lücke), festgeschrieben am 07.10.2026 vor dem Buch-Erscheinen: Fällt der Anbieter OpenAI an einem Ankertag wegen eines erschöpften Kontingents aus, wird OpenAI für diesen Ankertag einmalig nachgemessen, sobald das Kontingent wieder reicht, spätestens 36 Stunden nach dem Laufstart (gleiche Frist wie bei Claude). Nachgemessen werden nur die 16 OpenAI-Fragen mit demselben Modell; Gemini wird nicht erneut gefragt. Die Antworten tragen ihren echten Zeitpunkt und zählen für den Ankertag ihres Laufs. Gelingt die Nachmessung nicht innerhalb der Frist, bleibt der Tag für OpenAI eine Lücke (kein Nullwert) und wird hier eingetragen. Für die Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens gilt die Regel im Wirkungsfenster; die Grundlinie enthält keine Nachmessung.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD DEFINITION (not a gap), fixed on 7 October 2026 before the book release: If the provider OpenAI fails on an anchor day because its quota is exhausted, OpenAI is re-measured once for that anchor day as soon as the quota suffices again, at the latest 36 hours after the run started (same limit as for Claude). Only the 16 OpenAI questions are re-asked, with the same model; Gemini is not asked again. The answers carry their real timestamp and count for the anchor day of their run. If the re-measurement does not succeed within the limit, the day remains a gap for OpenAI (not a zero value) and is recorded here. For the book-release analysis the rule applies in the effect window; the baseline contains no re-measurement."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_claude_haiku_wechsel",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-09",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-09",
      "reason": "METHODIK-HINWEIS (keine Lücke), festgehalten am 09.10.2026: Am Ankertag 09.10. lief für Claude Haiku erstmals das Modell Haiku 5.5. In der Claude-Grundlinie vom 07.10. stand für Haiku noch Haiku 4.5, weil 5.5 dort noch nicht verfügbar war. Opus 5.5 und Sonnet 5.5 sind an beiden Tagen dieselben Modelle. Der Haiku-Vergleich zwischen Grundlinie und Ankertag vermischt deshalb Buch-Erscheinen und Modellwechsel. Er wird nur beschreibend und mit diesem Vorbehalt berichtet. Die Regel aus Eintrag method_claude_modelle (je das neueste Modell) bleibt unverändert, und die vorregistrierte Auswertung stützt sich weiter auf OpenAI und Gemini.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD NOTE (not a gap), recorded on 9 October 2026: On the anchor day 9 October, Claude Haiku was measured with Haiku 5.5 for the first time. The Claude baseline of 7 October still used Haiku 4.5, because 5.5 was not yet available then. Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 are the same models on both days. The Haiku comparison between baseline and anchor day therefore mixes the book release with the model change. It is reported descriptively only and with this caveat. The rule in entry method_claude_modelle (newest model of each family) is unchanged, and the pre-registered analysis still relies on OpenAI and Gemini."
    },
    {
      "channel": "method_claude_modellstand",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-09",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-09",
      "reason": "METHODIK-HINWEIS (keine Lücke): Nach der Regel vom 07.10.2026 misst der Anbieter Claude je das neueste Modell der Familien Opus, Sonnet und Haiku. Seit dem Ankertag 09.10.2026 ist das bei Haiku Haiku 5.5; die Grundlinie vom 07.10. stammt noch von Haiku 4.5 (Opus 5.5 und Sonnet 5.5 unverändert). Vergleiche der Haiku-Werte mit der Grundlinie enthalten damit auch den Modellwechsel. Die vorregistrierte Auswertung des Buch-Erscheinens stützt sich auf OpenAI und Gemini und ist nicht betroffen.",
      "reason_en": "METHOD NOTE (not a gap): Under the rule of 7 October 2026 the provider Claude is measured with the newest model of the Opus, Sonnet and Haiku families. Since the anchor day 9 October 2026 that is Haiku 5.5 for Haiku; the baseline of 7 October still used Haiku 4.5 (Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 unchanged). Comparisons of the Haiku values with the baseline therefore include the model change. The pre-registered analysis of the book release relies on OpenAI and Gemini and is not affected."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-10",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-12",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl antwortete am 10., 11. und 12.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) mit Serverfehlern (HTTP 521). Die Messung wurde jeweils am Nachmittag wiederholt; am 12.10. war auch dann nur 1 von 12 Abfragen beantwortet, deshalb gibt es für diesen Tag keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert). Seit 12.10. gilt ein Lauf ohne eine einzige beantwortete Abfrage als ausgefallen und erzeugt keine Zeile mehr.",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: the Common Crawl index API returned server errors (HTTP 521) at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) on 10, 11 and 12 Oct 2026. Each day the measurement was repeated in the afternoon; on 12 Oct only 1 of 12 queries was answered even then, so no inclusion rate exists for that day (empty, not zero). Since 12 Oct a run without a single answered query counts as failed and writes no row."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-13",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-13",
      "reason": "Verspätete Messung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 13.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen (HTTP 521). Der Lauf galt deshalb als ausgefallen und schrieb keine Zeile. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag um 16:50 UTC wiederholt: 10 von 12 Abfragen beantwortet, 8 Adressen enthalten, 2 Abfragen ohne Antwort. Der Tageswert stammt aus dieser Wiederholung.",
      "reason_en": "Delayed Common Crawl measurement: on 13 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC, HTTP 521). The run therefore counted as failed and wrote no row. The measurement was repeated the same day at 16:50 UTC: 10 of 12 queries answered, 8 addresses included, 2 queries unanswered. The value for that day comes from this repeat."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-14",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-14",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl antwortete am 14.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) mit einem Serverfehler (HTTP 521), der Lauf schrieb keine Zeile. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag um 16:59 UTC wiederholt: die Domain ist im Index enthalten, aber nur 4 von 12 Abfragen wurden beantwortet (3 Adressen enthalten, 8 Abfragen wegen Überlast ohne Antwort). Für diesen Tag gibt es deshalb keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert).",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: on 14 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API returned a server error (HTTP 521) at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) and the run wrote no row. The measurement was repeated the same day at 16:59 UTC: the domain is in the index, but only 4 of 12 queries were answered (3 addresses included, 8 queries unanswered due to overload). There is therefore no inclusion rate for that day (empty, not zero)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-16",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-16",
      "reason": "Verspätete Messung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 16.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag um 16:51 UTC wiederholt: 8 von 12 Abfragen beantwortet, 6 Adressen enthalten, 4 Abfragen ohne Antwort. Der Tageswert stammt aus dieser Wiederholung.",
      "reason_en": "Delayed Common Crawl measurement: on 16 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC). The measurement was repeated the same day at 16:51 UTC: 8 of 12 queries answered, 6 addresses included, 4 queries unanswered. The value for that day comes from this repeat."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-18",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-18",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 18.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag um 19:52 UTC wiederholt: nur 5 von 12 Abfragen beantwortet (4 Adressen enthalten, 7 Abfragen ohne Antwort). Für diesen Tag gibt es deshalb keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert).",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: on 18 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC). The measurement was repeated the same day at 19:52 UTC: only 5 of 12 queries answered (4 addresses included, 7 queries unanswered). There is therefore no inclusion rate for that day (empty, not zero)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-19",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-19",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 19.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen. Die Wiederholung um 16:51 UTC erhielt nur 1 von 12 Antworten (1 Adresse enthalten, 11 Abfragen ohne Antwort). Weitere Wiederholungen am Abend starteten nicht, weil der Nachlauf damals nur bei fehlender Tageszeile griff; das ist seit 20.10. behoben. Für diesen Tag gibt es keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert).",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: on 19 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC). The repeat at 16:51 UTC received only 1 of 12 answers (1 address included, 11 queries unanswered). Further evening repeats did not start because the retry then only ran when the day had no row at all; this was fixed on 20 Oct. There is therefore no inclusion rate for that day (empty, not zero)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-20",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-20",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 20.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nur 2 von 9 Abfragen (1 Adresse enthalten, 1 nicht enthalten, 7 Abfragen mit Serverfehler 503, 504 oder 521 oder Zeitüberschreitung). Bis zum Tagesende entstand keine vollständigere Messung; die vorhandene Zeile blieb unverändert. Für diesen Tag gibt es keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert).",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: on 20 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered only 2 of 9 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (1 address included, 1 not included, 7 queries failed with server errors 503, 504 or 521 or a timeout). No more complete measurement was obtained by the end of the day; the existing row was kept unchanged. There is therefore no inclusion rate for that day (empty, not zero)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-21",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-21",
      "reason": "Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 21.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nur 3 von 12 Abfragen (2 enthalten, 1 nicht enthalten, 9 Abfragen mit Serverfehler 503, 504 oder 521 oder Zeitüberschreitung). Bis zum Folgetag entstand keine vollständigere Messung; die vorhandene Zeile blieb unverändert. Für diesen Tag gibt es keine Aufnahmequote (Wert leer, kein Nullwert).",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl measurement: on 21 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered only 3 of 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (2 included, 1 not included, 9 queries failed with server errors 503, 504 or 521 or a timeout). No more complete measurement was obtained by the following day; the existing row was kept unchanged. There is therefore no inclusion rate for that day (empty, not zero)."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-22",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-22",
      "reason": "Ausfall Common Crawl: Die Index-Übersicht von Common Crawl war am 22.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nicht erreichbar (Serverfehler 521), ein Nachlauf am Abend (17:20 UTC) scheiterte ebenso (Serverfehler 520). Für diesen Tag gibt es keine Messung (Lücke, kein Nullwert). Die Ursache liegt bei Common Crawl.",
      "reason_en": "Common Crawl outage: on 22 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index listing was unreachable at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (server error 521); an evening re-run (17:20 UTC) failed as well (server error 520). There is no measurement for that day (a gap, not zero). The cause lies with Common Crawl."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-23",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-23",
      "reason": "Verspätete Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Schnittstelle von Common Crawl beantwortete am 23.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen, der Lauf schrieb keine Zeile. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag um 17:20 UTC wiederholt: 7 von 12 Abfragen beantwortet (1 Adresse enthalten, 6 nicht enthalten, 5 Abfragen mit Serverfehler 504 oder 521 oder Zeitüberschreitung). Die Wiederholung lief bereits gegen den neuen Crawl CC-MAIN-2026-43 (bis 21.10. CC-MAIN-2026-39); die Aufnahmequote dieses Tages bezieht sich auf den neuen Crawl und ist mit den Werten davor nicht direkt vergleichbar.",
      "reason_en": "Delayed partial Common Crawl measurement: on 23 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) and the run wrote no row. The measurement was repeated the same day at 17:20 UTC: 7 of 12 queries answered (1 address included, 6 not included, 5 queries failed with server errors 504 or 521 or a timeout). The repeat already ran against the new crawl CC-MAIN-2026-43 (until 21 Oct: CC-MAIN-2026-39); the inclusion rate for that day refers to the new crawl and is not directly comparable with earlier values."
    },
    {
      "channel": "gemini",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-24",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-24",
      "reason": "Ausfall Gemini am Ankertag 24.10.2026: Die Schnittstelle von Gemini lehnte alle 16 Fragen ab (Serverantwort 402, Guthaben des Messkontos aufgebraucht). Die Erhebung hatte die leeren Antworten zunächst als „nicht gefunden“ bewertet; sie wurden am selben Tag als Fehler gekennzeichnet und zählen nicht. Für Gemini gibt es an diesem Tag keine Messung (Lücke, kein Nullwert). Der Kombinationswert des Tages beruht auf zwei Anbietern (OpenAI und Claude) und ist im Verlauf hohl gezeichnet. Fehlerhafte Antworten der Schnittstelle werden seit dem 24.10. direkt als Fehler erfasst.",
      "reason_en": "Gemini outage on anchor day 24 Oct 2026: the Gemini API rejected all 16 questions (response 402, the measurement account had run out of credit). The pipeline initially scored the empty answers as “not found”; on the same day they were flagged as errors and do not count. There is no Gemini measurement for that day (a gap, not zero). The combined value for the day rests on two providers (OpenAI and Claude) and is drawn hollow in the trend. Since 24 Oct, failed API responses are recorded directly as errors."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-24",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-24",
      "reason": "Verspätete Teilmessung Common Crawl: Die Index-Übersicht von Common Crawl war am 24.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nicht erreichbar (Serverfehler 521), der Lauf schrieb keine Zeile. Die Messung wurde am selben Tag gegen 17:20 UTC wiederholt: 7 Adressen geprüft, 2 enthalten, bei 5 kam keine Antwort. Die Messung bezieht sich auf den Crawl CC-MAIN-2026-43 und ist mit den Werten bis 21.10. (CC-MAIN-2026-39) nicht direkt vergleichbar. Die Ursache liegt bei Common Crawl.",
      "reason_en": "Delayed partial Common Crawl measurement: on 24 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index listing was unreachable at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (server error 521) and the run wrote no row. The measurement was repeated the same day at around 17:20 UTC: 7 addresses checked, 2 included, 5 without an answer. It refers to crawl CC-MAIN-2026-43 and is not directly comparable with values up to 21 Oct (CC-MAIN-2026-39). The cause lies with Common Crawl."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-26",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-26",
      "reason": "Teilausfall Common Crawl: Die Index-Übersicht von Common Crawl war am 26.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nicht erreichbar (Serverfehler 521). Ein Nachlauf am Abend (17:30 UTC) lief durch, aber 8 von 12 Abfragen scheiterten an Überlast. Die Domain ist im Index CC-MAIN-2026-43 enthalten, eine Einschlussquote je Seite ist für diesen Tag nicht aussagefähig (Lücke, kein Nullwert). Die Ursache liegt bei Common Crawl.",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl outage: on 26 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl index listing was unreachable at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (server error 521). An evening re-run (17:30 UTC) completed, but 8 of 12 queries failed due to overload. The domain is present in index CC-MAIN-2026-43; a per-page inclusion rate is not meaningful for that day (a gap, not zero). The cause lies with Common Crawl."
    },
    {
      "channel": "gemini",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-27",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-27",
      "reason": "Ausfall Gemini am Ankertag 27.10.2026: Die Schnittstelle von Gemini lehnte erneut alle 16 Fragen ab (Serverantwort 402, Guthaben des Messkontos aufgebraucht, wie am 24.10.). Die Antworten sind als Fehler erfasst und zählen nicht. Für Gemini gibt es an diesem Tag keine Messung (Lücke, kein Nullwert). Der Kombinationswert des Tages beruht auf zwei Anbietern (OpenAI und Claude) und ist im Verlauf hohl gezeichnet.",
      "reason_en": "Gemini outage on anchor day 27 Oct 2026: the Gemini API again rejected all 16 questions (response 402, the measurement account had run out of credit, as on 24 Oct). The answers are recorded as errors and do not count. There is no Gemini measurement for that day (a gap, not zero). The combined value for the day rests on two providers (OpenAI and Claude) and is drawn hollow in the trend."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-27",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-27",
      "reason": "Teilausfall Common Crawl: Am 27.10.2026 beantwortete die Schnittstelle von Common Crawl zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) keine der 12 Abfragen (Serverfehler 521). Ein Nachlauf am Abend (17:31 UTC) lief durch, 4 von 12 Abfragen scheiterten an Überlast. Die Domain ist im Index CC-MAIN-2026-43 enthalten; die Einschlussquote dieses Tages beruht nur auf den beantworteten Seiten und ist eingeschränkt aussagefähig. Die Ursache liegt bei Common Crawl.",
      "reason_en": "Partial Common Crawl outage: on 27 Oct 2026 the Common Crawl API answered none of the 12 queries at the scheduled time (04:00 UTC) (server error 521). An evening re-run (17:31 UTC) completed; 4 of 12 queries failed due to overload. The domain is present in index CC-MAIN-2026-43; the inclusion rate for that day rests only on the answered pages and has limited meaning. The cause lies with Common Crawl."
    },
    {
      "channel": "common_crawl",
      "gap_start": "2026-10-28",
      "gap_end": "2026-10-28",
      "reason": "Ausfall Common Crawl: Die Index-Übersicht von Common Crawl war am 28.10.2026 zur planmäßigen Zeit (04:00 UTC) nicht erreichbar (Serverfehler 521), ein Nachlauf am Abend (17:34 UTC) scheiterte ebenso. Für diesen Tag gibt es keinen Messwert; die Lücke ist kein Nullwert. Die Ursache liegt bei Common Crawl. Nachtrag 29.10.2026: Ein weiterer Nachlauf am 28.10. um 21:51 UTC hat doch noch eine Messung geschrieben (9 von 12 Adressen beantwortet, 2 davon im Index, 3 mit Serverfehler 504). Der Tag ist damit nur teilweise gemessen, nicht ausgefallen; die drei unbeantworteten Adressen sind eine Lücke, kein Nullwert.",
      "reason_en": "Common Crawl outage: the Common Crawl index overview was unreachable at the scheduled time on 28 Oct 2026 (04:00 UTC) (server error 521); an evening re-run failed as well. There is no measurement for that day; the gap is not a zero value. The cause lies with Common Crawl. Addendum 29 Oct 2026: a further re-run on 28 Oct at 21:51 UTC did write a measurement after all (9 of 12 addresses answered, 2 of them in the index, 3 with server error 504). The day is therefore partially measured rather than missing; the three unanswered addresses are a gap, not a zero value."
    }
  ]
}